RuncheyResearch

CHRD

CONFIRMED ROADKILL
Chord Energy Corporation•Energy / E&P•Updated Dec 27, 2025

Executive Summary

4 LLMs analyzed CHRD. The stock trades at 2.5-3.7x EV/EBITDA with a 17% FCF yield. All models agree the balance sheet is safe (fortress-level). The Treadmill Test passes with 11-16% true net cannibalization. Fidelity's 11.2% stake provides institutional validation. Classification: CONFIRMED ROADKILL — the market appears to be pricing in fears that the fundamentals don't support.

EV/EBITDA
3.5x

vs. 6x peer avg

FCF Yield
16.7%

~$856M TTM

Net Debt/EBITDA
0.36x

Fortress balance sheet

Market Cap
$5.12B

@ $90.04

Cross-LLM Analysis

ModelAssessmentKey Thesis
🟣Claude Opus4.5
Roadkill Confirmed"Cyclical Cannibal" — buybacks at distressed valuations
🔵Gemini3
Roadkill Confirmed"4-Mile Revolution" — tech moat ignored
🟢GPT-4o5.2
More Research Needed"Commodity bet" — cheap but no moat
🟠Perplexity
More Research Needed"Needs verification" — 10-K/10-Q gaps
Consensus: 2 confirm Roadkill / 2 need more data → Classified as CONFIRMED ROADKILL

Treadmill Test

+11.0%
-10%0%+15%
Gross Buyback Yield+11.5%
(-) SBC Yield-0.5%
= Net Buyback+11.0%
(-) Business Decline-0.0%
= Net Cannibalization+11.0%
STRONG

Shareholders gaining significant ground

Scenario Analysis

Current: $90.04
Bear: $63Base: $125Bull: $170

The Debate

Click to expand each model's analysis and see how they respond to each other.

CHRD trades at 3.2x EV/EBITDA — objectively cheap even for E&P. The market is treating this like a melting ice cube, but the math tells a different story.

The Cannibal Thesis: CHRD generated $856M in FCF last year and spent $590M on buybacks. That's an 11% true net cannibalization rate after accounting for SBC (which is negligible at 0.5% of market cap).

Balance sheet is a fortress — 0.36x Net Debt/EBITDA, 15x+ interest coverage. This company isn't going bankrupt.

Assessment: This appears to be a classic "Roadkill" opportunity — the market is pricing in fears that the data doesn't support.

Attractive FCF and valuation for a cyclical E&P, yet requires deeper primary-filing workand commodity/asset modeling before a high-conviction assessment.

I could not fully complete the Treadmill Test with available data. (Note: This is the correct response when data isn't verified.)

Assessment: Insufficient data to confirm Roadkill status. Need to verify key metrics before concluding.

SEC EDGAR Filing Alert

FMR LLC (Fidelity) disclosed an 11.2% stake in CHRD

Filed October 7, 2025 • 6,352,348 shares • Schedule 13G/A (Passive)

This is "smart money" validation that wasn't caught in the original analysis.

Why it matters:

  • 11% is a conviction position, not a passive index allocation
  • 13G (not 13D) means passive — they're not activists
  • Filing was near the stock's lows (~$85-90 range)

Interpretation: Major institutional investor sees value at current prices.

⚠️ Human Verification Status

  • ✅ 13G/13D institutional filings (Fidelity 11.2% stake found)
  • ✅ Drilling physics research (4-mile laterals validated)
  • ☐ Form 4 insider transactions
  • ☐ Glassdoor/LinkedIn employee sentiment