RuncheyResearch
Forecasts and reasoning, on the record.
Currently maintained: the Memory Cycle Ledger, a running record of the memory-chip cycle held against tripwires stated in advance. 1 of 8 fired; data evaluated 2026-10-09.
Geopolitical Forecasting
Live situations — a developing event, its key inputs, and probabilistic forecasts on how it evolves, updated as facts change. First situation: the 2026 U.S. midterms.
Congressional Forecasting
Which bills move, which die, and why. Legislation, votes, and member behavior tracked continuously, with probabilistic forecasts attached to outcomes.
AI Buildout Analysis
The AI buildout treated as a system: the semiconductor complex, capability trajectories, disruption dynamics, and criticality models of how it all unwinds or compounds — predictable moves, unpredictable timing.
Memory Cycle LedgerAI Absorption Ledger, 58 companiesResearch Archive
Methodology era 1 (2025–2026): 260+ multi-lens equity analyses, 2,300+ scored forecast markets, macro themes, and sector deep-dives. Everything remains at its original URL.