About

Runchey Research is a one-person project: forecasts and reasoning, kept on the public record. The motivation is straightforward — I am trying to be less wrong about the world, and committing probabilities to a record I can't quietly revise is the mechanism that keeps the attempt honest.

I'm Matt Runchey, a software engineer. The work here combines AI systems — multi-model pipelines for research, structured analysis, and calibration tracking — with my own judgment. The models are tools in the process; they don't have final say over anything published.

The current focus is forecasting: developing geopolitical situations, legislative and policy outcomes, and the dynamics of the AI buildout — semiconductors, capability trajectories, and the system-level models that describe them. Each of these tracks is being built out now; the record will accumulate here as forecasts resolve.

Before this, the site ran a broad equity, macro, and sector research operation — 260+ multi-lens company analyses and 2,300+ scored forecast markets. All of it is preserved in the research archive at its original URLs, and the resolved markets there are the starting point for the current track record.

Everything published is educational content, not financial advice. There are no recommendations here, no signals, and no paid tiers. Details on disclosures and standards are on the editorial page.

If you want to follow along, there's a newsletter. For professional inquiries, see the professional page.