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Timely earnings analysis, material updates, and thesis changes from our AI ensemble. Ticker-specific, evidence-grounded, updated as events unfold.
NVDA Q4 FY2026: $68B Revenue (+73%), All 8 Signals Confirmed — Thesis Maintained at Price-Above-Value
NVIDIA delivered $68.1B Q4 revenue (+73% YoY), Data Center $62.3B (+22% QoQ), 75.2% gross margin. All 8 signals confirmed. Vendor financing quantified at $17.5B (8.1% of DC revenue). 7 prediction markets updated. Thesis maintained at price-above-value at $195.92.
CRM Q4 FY2026: Thesis Upgraded to Price-Below-Value at ~10x FCF
Revenue $11.2B (+12%/10% CC) breaks 7-quarter band. EXPECTATIONS_PRICED reclassified DEMANDING to MODEST. Thesis upgraded from price-at-value to price-below-value at $183 (~10x forward FCF on $16.5B+ guidance). 4 markets resolved (avg Brier 0.22), 5 predictions updated.
SNOW Q4 FY2026: SBC 41%→34%→27% Guided, $9.77B RPO — One Signal Shifts
Q4 product revenue $1.23B (+30%, beat guide). RPO $9.77B (+42%) with record $400M+ deal. SBC declining from 41% to 34%, guided 27% FY2027. EXPECTATIONS_PRICED reclassified from STRETCHED to DEMANDING. Thesis shifts to price-at-value. One market resolved, six predictions updated.
ADSK Earnings Preview: 68% Guidance Beat at 19x Forward PE
ADSK ensemble assigns 68% probability FY2027 revenue guidance exceeds $7.80B and 78% probability Q4 margin hits 38%+. At $240 and ~19x forward PE — bottom decile — the market prices 5-8% growth while the company delivers 20%+. Five metrics to watch Feb 26.
INTU Earnings Preview: 77% Mailchimp Decline, 65% Revenue Miss
INTU ensemble assigns 77% probability Mailchimp revenue decline persists and 65% probability Q2 revenue misses the high end of guidance ($5.25B). At $384.83 with a 43% drawdown, the insider behavior puzzle deepens: $375M selling, zero buying. Five metrics to watch Feb 26.
COMP Earnings Preview: 70% EBITDA Miss, 80% Zillow Risk
COMP ensemble assigns 70% probability the first combined EBITDA misses $150M and 80% probability of an unfavorable Zillow ruling. At $12.27, eight markets tilt bearish on the $10B Anywhere merger. Five metrics to watch Feb 26.
XYZ Earnings Preview: 86% GP Growth, 28% SEC Risk
XYZ ensemble assigns 86% probability Q4 GP growth exceeds 15% YoY — extending four quarters of acceleration — while SEC/DOJ enforcement probability sits at 28%. At $53.30 and ~3.2x GP, five metrics to watch Feb 26.
REZI Q4 2025: Record Results Partially Refute Spruce Point — 1 Signal De-Escalated, 4 Confirmed
Resideo reported record FY2025 results: revenue $7.5B (+11%), EBITDA $833M (+20%), adjusted OCF $453M (+2%). Actual leverage is 3.9x, not 5.5x per Spruce Point. No goodwill impairment. $75M Snap One synergies 18 months early. FUNDING_FRAGILITY de-escalated from STRAINED to STRETCHED.
HIMS Q4 2025: $1B Convert Confirmed, 2 Stress Signals Escalated — 5 Confirmed
FY2025 revenue $2,348M (+59%), Q4 $618M (+28%). 10-K reveals convertible notes at $1.0B (33% larger than estimated), cash down to $929M, FCF collapsed to $57M. FUNDING_FRAGILITY escalated to STRAINED, CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT to DESTRUCTIVE. All regulatory proceedings unresolved.
SNOW Earnings Preview: 2.3% AI Revenue, 59% Slowdown Risk
SNOW ensemble assigns 59% probability FY2027 guidance implies growth below 25%. AI is 2.3% of revenue despite 'AI revolution' framing. SBC at 40.8%, NRR down 33 points, zero insider buying.
NVDA Earnings Preview: $65B Quarter Tests $3T Narrative
NVDA ensemble assigns 86% probability Data Center revenue keeps growing sequentially, but the $3T+ valuation demands 25-30% annual growth at 70%+ margins for years. Seven markets track the gap.
CRM Earnings Preview: Revenue Breakout Faces 76% Risk
CRM ensemble assigns 24% probability to revenue growth above 10% CC — a threshold Salesforce hasn't cleared in seven quarters. Four of nine markets resolve simultaneously on February 25.
REZI Earnings Preview: Short Thesis Faces 10-K Test
Seven prediction markets track Spruce Point's short thesis ahead of REZI's February 24 10-K filing. Ensemble assigns 57% probability to OCF missing $120M target, 32% to goodwill impairment.
NVO REDEFINE 4: CagriSema Fails Non-Inferiority vs LLY Tirzepatide
CagriSema achieved 23.0% weight loss but failed to demonstrate non-inferiority to tirzepatide (25.5%). Our ensemble predicted 62% YES — market resolves NO (Brier 0.38). Confirms managed decline to #2 behind Eli Lilly.
HIMS Earnings Preview: GLP-1 Revenue at Coin-Flip Odds
HIMS ensemble assigns 52% probability Q4 weight loss revenue falls below $175M — a coin flip on the central revenue question. With 5 concurrent legal proceedings and 65% odds of subscriber deceleration, five metrics to watch Feb 24.
Introducing Macro Analysis: 10 Conditional Markets, 22 Signals, 2 Live Themes
Launching a new macro analysis vertical built on conditional probability markets. Two live themes — US Monetary Policy and US Trade Policy — analyzed through 7 specialized lenses producing 22 calibrated signals and 180 model predictions across 10 paired conditional markets.
ASTS: Dilution Market Resolves (Brier 0.09), 2 New Markets Added
ASTS dilutive capital raise market resolved YES with Brier 0.09 — $1B convertible + $706M ATM confirmed 10.5 months early. Revenue guidance probability shifted +61pts to 91%. Two new markets added: CTO departure (62%) and cash burn (30%). 8 active markets remain.
DE Q1 FY2026: Guidance Raised to $4.5-5.0B, All 8 Signals Confirmed
NI guidance raised from $4.0-4.75B to $4.5-5.0B. Cash flow +$500M. Buybacks resumed at $750M. Technology adoption accelerating: 99% harvest automation, highly engaged acres +25% YoY. 1 market resolved (Brier 0.10), 7 updated. Thesis: Price At Value at MEDIUM confidence.
LMND Q4 2025: Record 52% Loss Ratio, 1 Signal Upgraded — Thesis Holds
Q4 gross loss ratio 52% (record low), revenue $228M (+53%), IFP $1.24B (+31%). EBITDA loss narrows to $5M. FUNDING_FRAGILITY de-escalated from STRETCHED to ADEQUATE. 2 markets resolved (avg Brier 0.17), 6 active. Thesis unchanged: Price Above Value at MEDIUM confidence.
WMT Q4 FY2026: Revenue Crosses $700B as All 10 Signals Confirmed
Full-year revenue exceeds $700B for the first time. Advertising $6.4B (+46%), eCommerce profitable 4 consecutive quarters. 5-lens committee confirms all 10 signals — zero classification changes. 7 forecast markets updated. Thesis unchanged: Price Above Value at MEDIUM confidence.
CVNA Q4 2025: Revenue +58% as 8-Lens Analysis Flags Elevated Risk
Q4 revenue $5.6B (+58%), FY2025 $20.3B (+49%). New 8-lens committee analysis across 13 signals finds genuine operational strength within CAPTURED/MISALIGNED governance. SEC investigation cited by 6 lenses as pivotal catalyst. 2 markets resolved, 8 active.
BKNG Q4 2025: Revenue Beats by $100M, All 5 Lenses Confirmed — Parity Paradox Deepens
Q4 revenue $6.35B (+16%), room nights 285M (beat by 30M). Take rates stable after 16+ months of DMA parity clause removal. EBITDA margin 36.9% (+193bps). CEO pivots to 'Agentic AI' defense. All 5 lens signals confirmed. 8 forecast markets updated.
DE Earnings Preview: $4B Net Income Floor at 72% Odds
DE ensemble assigns 28% probability FY2026 net income breaks below the $4.0B guidance floor. With $2.4B in headwinds and a CFO exit, five metrics to watch Feb 19.
LMND Earnings Preview: Key Loss Ratio at 66% Odds
LMND ensemble assigns 66% probability Q4 loss ratio breaks below 65% — the first full quarter under new 20% quota share. At ~8x P/S, five metrics to watch Feb 19.
WMT Earnings Preview: All 7 Risks Below 21% at 45x P/E
WMT ensemble assigns below-21% probability to every downside scenario with 0.94+ model agreement. At 45.7x P/E, the stock prices in the base case. Five metrics to watch Feb 19.
BKNG Earnings Preview: Parity Clause Damage at 15% Odds
BKNG ensemble assigns only 15% probability to measurable parity clause damage and 12% to take rate compression. At ~25x P/E, five metrics to watch Feb 18.
CVNA Earnings Preview: Key Metric at Coin-Flip Odds
CVNA ensemble splits 52/48 on whether 'Other' GPU stays above $420 — the single most important earnings quality metric. At ~92x P/E, five signals to watch Feb 18.
V: Coverage Initiated at Price Below Value
Runchey Research initiates coverage on Visa (V) with a 'Price Below Value' classification at MEDIUM confidence. 8-lens analysis across 12 signals and 9-market ensemble find dominant moat facing unprecedented dual-front regulatory challenge, with the market modestly over-discounting near-term operational strength.
MA: Coverage Initiated at Price Above Value
Runchey Research initiates coverage on Mastercard (MA) with a 'Price Above Value' classification at MEDIUM confidence. 7-lens analysis across 11 signals and 9-market ensemble find dominant franchise at demanding multiples amid hostile regulatory environment.
BRK.B: Coverage Initiated at 'Price Below Value' With High Confidence
Runchey Research initiates coverage on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) with a 'Price Below Value' classification at HIGH confidence. 6-lens analysis and 9-market ensemble find governance discount and PacifiCorp premium appear disproportionate.
MRNA Q4 2025: Cash Beats by $1.1B, All 6 Signals Confirmed
FY2025 revenue $1.9B, year-end cash $8.1B (beat guidance by $1.1B+). Cost discipline exceeded targets by $1.2B. One market resolved (Brier 0.10). Thesis confidence upgraded MEDIUM to MEDIUM-HIGH.
TWLO Upgraded to 'Price Below Value' After Record $1.4B Q4
TWLO upgraded from 'Price At Value' to 'Price Below Value' as Q4 revenue hits $1.4B (+12% organic), first GAAP profitability ($158M), FCF $945M. All 10 signals confirmed. At ~17x forward FCF, fundamentals outpace the post-earnings pullback.
ABNB Q4 2025: Revenue +12%, All 5 Signals Confirmed
Revenue $2.8B (+12%) beat guidance by $80M. GBV +16% highest in 2+ years. FY2026 guided 'at least low double digits.' Ensemble updates 3 markets — revenue guidance >12% probability rises to 35%.
MRNA Earnings Preview: Cash Runway Faces 32% Risk
MRNA ensemble assigns 32% probability that Q4 cash falls below $7B or 2026 guidance drops below $1.5B. At $37.74, the stock trades near cash value — five metrics to watch Feb 13.
TWLO Earnings Preview: Growth Sustainability Faces Real Test
TWLO ensemble assigns 11% probability that Q4 organic revenue growth falls below 10% YoY. Five bull/bear metrics to watch as growth re-acceleration narrative faces its first real test Feb 12.
ABNB Earnings Preview: Growth Narrative Faces 84% Risk
ABNB ensemble assigns 16% probability to FY2026 guidance above 12%. At ~35x P/E, the stock prices reacceleration the models view as unlikely. Five metrics to watch Feb 12.
HOOD Outlook Shifts to 'Mixed' After Record Q4 Revenue
HOOD direction revised from downward-pressure to mixed as FY2025 revenue hits $4.5B (+52% YoY). Prediction ensemble updates 5 active markets; Gold subscriber probability drops 72% to 52%.
Datadog (DDOG) Upgraded to 'Price Below Value' After Q4 Revenue Accelerates to $953M
DDOG upgraded to 'Price Below Value' (high confidence) as Q4 revenue hits $953M (+29% YoY). Classification change persists even after 17% post-earnings move to $133.64.