Macro Analysis
Paired conditional predictions measuring the causal effects of macro events. We don't predict whether the Fed cuts — we predict what happens if they do versus if they don't.
How Conditional Forecasting Works
We take a macro event (like a Fed rate decision) and source its probability from prediction markets — we don't predict the event itself.
Our 9-model ensemble runs twice per question: once assuming the condition is true, once assuming it's false. 18 model calls per pair.
The difference between branches IS the product — it measures how much the macro event causally affects the downstream outcome.
BOJ Policy Normalization
Bank of Japan normalizing monetary policy after decades of ultra-loose rates — 4 hikes since March 2024, now at 0.75% (highest since 1995). Yen carry trade unwinding risk ($250B unwound in August 2024 alone), JGB 10Y yields above 2%, and spillover to global bond markets. Key tension: further normalization toward 1%+ supports yen but risks destabilizing carry trade positioning and triggering renewed market volatility.
China Stimulus Pivot
Beijing facing persistent deflation (CPI near zero 18+ months), property sector down ~30% from peak, youth unemployment elevated. Core question: does China shift from supply-side stimulus (infrastructure, manufacturing subsidies) to demand-side stimulus (consumer transfers, property floor, consumption vouchers)? Condition: PBOC + State Council announce consumer-facing stimulus exceeding 2% of GDP by end of Q3 2026. Downstream effects cascade into commodity prices, EM currencies, US import deflation, eurozone export demand, and global manufacturing PMIs.
ECB Policy Divergence
ECB cutting while Fed holds — widening rate differential driving EUR/USD regime shift, European credit easing, and transatlantic capital flow reallocation. ECB deposit rate at 2.75% after Jan 30 cut, with the Fed-ECB gap at ~175bp. Key tension: easing supports European growth but weak euro imports US inflation via dollar-priced commodities.
US Monetary Policy
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and their downstream effects on housing, credit, labor, and financial conditions. Analysis anchored to FOMC meetings (8x/year) with interim updates from major data releases (CPI, NFP).
US Trade Policy
US trade policy following the Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling (Feb 20, 2026) and the 15% Section 122 flat tariff. Analysis anchored to the 150-day authority expiration (~July 24), congressional action windows, and monthly trade data releases. Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum, autos) and Section 301 China tariffs remain in effect alongside the flat tariff.