Blog

Write-ups from the ledgers and screens: what the records show when read together, and how they were built.

• October 7, 2026 · 8 min

  Who Pays for AI, Part 2: The Sellers Finance the Payers

  One narrower question of the same filings: who is financing the customers at the top of the AI chain? Most AI revenue above end use is paid by customers the sellers themselves have put equity, purchase commitments, guarantees or extended payment terms behind, and the sellers' gains on those customers exceed what the customers pay them for compute. None of it is hidden or irregular; it has a direction. Four readings the filings give every quarter, receivables and terms, delivered capacity and its use, backlog conversion, and the marks, say whether it is unwinding toward absorption or tightening.

• October 6, 2026 · 14 min

  Who Pays for AI

  A seller's AI revenue is someone's spend, and that spend is either absorption, a buyer paying because a line on its own income statement moved, or belief, a buyer paying because it or its investors expect one to. Fifty-eight companies read from their filings, layer by layer, say that almost all the traceable AI money is capital changing hands among the builders: the build, the chips the clouds buy, compute paid for by payers the filings do not split, and gains on stakes in the labs. The part that has reached companies' own operating statements is a fraction of a percent of their revenue, and the post ends with what would move that reading.

• July 21, 2026 · 13 min

  Screening Polymarket M&A Markets for Insider-Shaped Trades

  Bloomberg Businessweek flagged $200M of Polymarket trades with insider-like characteristics. We rebuilt the core of that screen, scoped to the domain where insider tells are best understood: merger markets tied to publicly traded equities. 47 markets, 113k on-chain trades, eight suspicion metrics per position — and a resolved-NO control group the original analysis lacked. A flag is not proof. Here is what the screen finds, what the control group says about it, and where the method breaks.

Earlier posts (2025–2026: equity deep dives, earnings updates, sector and macro analyses) are in the blog archive. Each keeps its original address.