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CEG Forecast Markets

Constellation Energy

7
Active Markets
49%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 23, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will Constellation announce a signed hyperscaler data center PPA (beyond Microsoft TMI) by Q3 2026 earnings?

Active
48%
Likely No
92% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Constellation's FY2026 standalone operating income exceed FY2025's $3,086M?

Active
50%
Likely No
92% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Three Mile Island Unit 1 receive NRC restart approval by December 31, 2026?

Active
23%
Likely No
91% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will the DOJ approve the Constellation-Calpine acquisition by December 31, 2026?

Active
65%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will PJM capacity auction clearing prices decline by more than 20% from the 2025-2026 auction for the 2026-2027 delivery year?

Active
25%
Likely No
94% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Constellation's nuclear fleet capacity factor remain above 95% through H2 2026?

Active
78%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.36

Will the combined Constellation-Calpine entity receive an investment-grade credit rating by YE2027?

Active
57%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2028
IG: 0.36

Resolution Timeline

Nov 15, 2026
Will Constellation announce a signed hyperscaler data center PPA (beyond Microsoft TMI) by Q3 2026 earnings?
Prediction: 48%
Dec 31, 2026
Will PJM capacity auction clearing prices decline by more than 20% from the 2025-2026 auction for the 2026-2027 delivery year?
Prediction: 25%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Three Mile Island Unit 1 receive NRC restart approval by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 23%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the DOJ approve the Constellation-Calpine acquisition by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 65%
Mar 15, 2027
Will Constellation's FY2026 standalone operating income exceed FY2025's $3,086M?
Prediction: 50%
Mar 15, 2027
Will Constellation's nuclear fleet capacity factor remain above 95% through H2 2026?
Prediction: 78%
Jan 15, 2028
Will the combined Constellation-Calpine entity receive an investment-grade credit rating by YE2027?
Prediction: 57%