DKNGActive

Will DKNG's parlay handle mix growth decelerate below 300bps YoY by H2 2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(355d)

IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

23%

Likely No

Model Agreement94%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 23, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Parlay mix expansion is the single most important operational lever across three lenses (Gravy Gauge, Atomic Auditor, Moat Mapper). Current 500-1000bps YoY growth drives margin expansion from ~5.5% to 8%+. If growth decelerates below 300bps, the margin expansion runway shortens significantly. International benchmarks suggest room to grow, but U.S. market differences create uncertainty.

UNIT_ECONOMICSREVENUE_DURABILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 20% – 28%Aggregate: 23%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

22%

Current parlay mix growth of 500-1000bps YoY shows no signs of plateauing. International benchmarks at 60%+ suggest substantial runway. DraftKings actively drives adoption through product features. 300bps threshold well below current trend.

Current trend 500-1000bps above thresholdInternational benchmarks suggest runwayActive product features driving adoption

opusRun 2

28%

500-1000bps provides buffer above 300bps. Law of large numbers applies as mix increases from higher base. However, acceleration from 500 to 800-1000bps suggests strengthening trend. Below 300bps by H2 2026 unlikely.

Law of large numbers creates pressureCurrent acceleration argues against plateau300bps low relative to trend

opusRun 3

25%

Three lenses reached rare consensus on runway. Product innovation actively driving adoption. H2 2026 is only 6-12 months away. Trends this strong do not decelerate from 500-1000bps to sub-300bps in 6 months without exogenous shock.

Rare 3-lens consensus6-month timeframe too shortNo exogenous shock expected

sonnetRun 1

20%

Trend clearly accelerating. Product features driving adoption. International benchmarks show 60%+. 300bps threshold is conservative. Dramatic reversal within 6 months very unlikely.

Accelerating trend300bps far below trajectory6 months short for reversal

sonnetRun 2

25%

While trend strong, YoY comparisons become harder when prior year also had strong growth. Maintaining 300bps+ means ~60% of prior rate -- achievable. Active product investment makes sub-300bps unlikely.

YoY comp difficulty60% maintenance achievableProduct investment sustains momentum

sonnetRun 3

23%

DraftKings investing in parlay-driving features. U.S. structurally earlier in adoption than international. Drop below 300bps requires saturation or regulatory intervention -- neither imminent.

Specific product investmentU.S. early in adoption curveNo regulatory intervention expected

haikuRun 1

20%

Strong trend accelerating from 500 to 800-1000bps. International benchmarks show massive runway. Active product features. Sub-300bps in 6 months very unlikely.

Accelerating trendInternational runwayProduct-driven adoption

haikuRun 2

25%

Current growth well above 300bps threshold. Even with deceleration from base effects, maintaining 300bps+ highly likely given product investment.

Large buffer above thresholdBase effects create some pressureProduct investment sustains

haikuRun 3

22%

Three-lens consensus, accelerating trend, product features, international runway. 300bps threshold well below current trajectory.

Multi-lens consensusAccelerating trendWell below current trajectory

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if DraftKings discloses parlay handle mix YoY growth below 300bps for any quarter in H2 2026 during earnings calls or investor presentations.

Resolution Source

Q3 or Q4 2026 earnings call transcript or investor presentation

Source Trigger

Monitor quarterly parlay handle mix YoY change. Plateau or decline would cap the margin expansion runway.

atomic-auditorUNIT_ECONOMICSHIGH

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