DNNActive

Will the Phoenix CapEx estimate remain at or below C$660M (10% above C$600M) through 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(297d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

52%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The C$600M CapEx estimate for Phoenix ISR has no construction track record to validate. Mining projects historically overrun by 20-50%, especially for first-of-kind technology. An increase beyond 10%

CAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 48% – 58%Aggregate: 52%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

55%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 2

52%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

opusRun 3

58%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 1

50%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 2

48%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

sonnetRun 3

52%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 1

52%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 2

50%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

haikuRun 3

50%

See prediction context.

See prediction-context.md

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if DNN CapEx estimate for Phoenix remains at or below C$660M as of latest 2026 disclosure. Resolves NO if estimate exceeds C$660M.

Resolution Source

DNN technical reports, quarterly filings, or press releases

Source Trigger

C$600M estimate has no construction track record; mining projects historically overrun 20-50%

stress-scannerCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENTMEDIUM

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