Will FTAI receive FAA approval for PMA Part #3 by December 31, 2026?

FTAI has successfully obtained PMA approvals previously, demonstrating capability in navigating FAA process. Part #3 appears to be in advanced stages given management's confidence in 2026 margins exceeding 40%. FAA timelines are uncertain but FTAI has invested in the application process. 55%.

FAA PMA approvals are notoriously unpredictable in timing. The application may be in review but the approval timeline depends on FAA workload and testing requirements. No specific timeline has been publicly confirmed. 50%.

Management's margin guidance implicitly assumes PMA Part #3 approval. If they expected it to be delayed beyond 2026, they likely would not have guided >40% margins. This suggests internal confidence in near-term approval. 58%.

PMA approvals typically take 12-24 months once submitted. FTAI likely submitted well before the announcement. If in review since mid-2025, approval by end 2026 is plausible. 52%.

Prior successful approvals and management confidence support the timeline. FAA may prioritize given aviation safety importance. 55%.

The margin guidance framework essentially pre-announces expectation of approval. Management would not make this projection without high internal confidence. 58%.

Prior approvals and management confidence suggest likely. FAA timing is the main risk. 55%.

Slightly above coin flip given management confidence but FAA uncertainty. 52%.

Margin guidance framework and prior success support approval timeline. 55%.