KTOSActive

Will KTOS deliver 15+ Valkyrie aircraft (all variants) in FY2026?

Resolves March 15, 2027(363d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

30%

Likely No

Model Agreement92%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 16, 2026

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 25% – 35%Aggregate: 30%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

35%

Current rate is ~8/year. 15 requires nearly doubling in FY2026. MUX TACAIR is new and production quantities not yet definitized. Management explicitly stated production awards are NOT in base guidance.

Current 8/year rateProduction not in guidanceMUX TACAIR still ramping

opusRun 2

30%

CEO stated 4-5 RDT&E/S&T Valkyries in FY2026 plan plus additional units. Engine long-lead is 14 months. Definitization later this year.

4-5 RDT&E planned14-month engine leadDefinitization timing

opusRun 3

32%

MUX TACAIR initial award covers 24-month PoP. Even with immediate start, 15 in 12 months is aggressive.

24-month PoPCapacity constraintsRamp timeline

sonnetRun 1

28%

40/year target is for end of FY2028, not FY2026. FY2026 is a transition year.

40/year is FY2028 targetTransition year

sonnetRun 2

25%

CEO was clear: base case does not include large production awards. FY2026 is primarily RDT&E.

Production not in base caseRDT&E focus

sonnetRun 3

30%

Some upside from MUX TACAIR and classified program. But 15 is above likely scenarios.

MUX TACAIR upsideStill above likely scenario

haikuRun 1

30%

Scaling from 8 to 15 in one year without definitized contracts is ambitious.

Scaling ambitionUndefinitized contracts

haikuRun 2

28%

Engine lead times and capacity constraints make 15 unlikely.

Lead timesCapacity

haikuRun 3

32%

MUX deliveries plus RDT&E could approach 12-13, but 15 is high bar.

MUX deliveriesHigh bar

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if KTOS reports delivery of 15 or more Valkyrie aircraft (all variants combined) during FY2026 via earnings calls, press releases, or investor presentations. Resolves NO if below 15. Note: exact production numbers may need to be derived from revenue/unit economics disclosures.

Resolution Source

KTOS FY2026 earnings calls, investor presentations, or 10-K

Source Trigger

Valkyrie annual production rate below 25/year by end FY2027 signals scaling problem

moat-mapperCOMPETITIVE_POSITIONHIGH

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