SMCIActive

Will the SEC or DOJ announce a formal enforcement action against SMCI by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 15, 2027(304d)

IG: 0.72

Current Prediction

45%

Likely No

Model Agreement72%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The SEC/DOJ investigation is the largest unquantifiable risk. Any enforcement action (fine, consent decree, executive charges) would define the severity of the governance weakness. A resolution would remove the overhang. If enforcement arrives by December 2026, the outcome would immediately reclassify REGULATORY_EXPOSURE and potentially GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT. If no action by then, the investigation may be winding down without major findings.

REGULATORY_EXPOSUREGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTACCOUNTING_INTEGRITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 40% – 50%Aggregate: 45%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

50%

SEC investigations typically take 2-4 years. Subpoenas issued late 2024. Recidivist profile may accelerate. Base rate for enforcement after subpoena is ~40-50%.

Base rate ~40-50%Recidivist profileDOJ involvement

opusRun 2

42%

Most SEC investigations take 18-36 months. December 2026 is within the typical window but toward the earlier end.

18-36 month typical timelineWithin window but early

opusRun 3

48%

Recidivist profile is the key factor. Prior settlement in 2020. SEC may be more aggressive.

Recidivist profilePrior settlement precedent

sonnetRun 1

45%

SEC/DOJ have had the case for ~2 years by Dec 2026. Recidivist cases often resolve faster.

2 years of investigationRecidivist acceleration

sonnetRun 2

40%

Many investigations end without formal action. Company cooperation may reduce severity.

Cooperation may reduce severityMany end without action

sonnetRun 3

48%

DOJ involvement signals criminal potential. Higher bar but more serious.

DOJ signals criminal potential

haikuRun 1

45%

Prior settlement + new investigation = likely action.

Prior settlementTimeline reasonable

haikuRun 2

42%

Investigations are slow. December 2026 may be too early.

Slow process

haikuRun 3

47%

Recidivist plus DOJ involvement suggest higher probability.

RecidivistDOJ involvement

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if the SEC or DOJ announces any formal enforcement action (charges, consent decree, settlement, or formal order) against SMCI or any SMCI executive by December 31, 2026. Wells Notices count as evidence of intent but do not resolve the market.

Resolution Source

SEC EDGAR enforcement releases, DOJ press releases, SMCI 8-K filings

Source Trigger

SEC/DOJ enforcement action

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH

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