Will Xometry stock close at or below $32.00 on any trading day before December 31, 2026?

$32 = -33% from current $47.71. Black Swan Beacon compound scenarios: A (15-25%), B (10-20%), C (5-15%), Thesis Killer (5-10%) — but each requires multiple simultaneous failures. Single-leg scenarios alone don't typically reach -33% drawdown. Treasury floor $36.20 = -25% from current. Below $36 requires 2+ scenarios crystallizing. ~15%.

Small-cap industrial growth -33% drawdown probability in 8-month window with positive earnings momentum: ~12-15%. Profitability inflection achieved ($18.5M Adj EBITDA) provides multiple-floor support. 2030 Notes conversion at $47.06 creates investor cohort with 'stay above' incentive. ~13%.

Counter: any-day-touch over 8 months gives probability boost over year-end close. Macro recession + Q1 miss could cluster. CEO transition uncertainty creates 2H tail risk window. CONSENSUS_BLINDSPOT (narrative moat) could amplify selling on any thesis crack. ~17%.

Compound failure (5-10% Thesis Killer) + standalone scenarios (~8% touching this level). Treasury floor at $36.20 provides meaningful resistance. ~14%.

Marketplace GM compression + customer loss + transition friction = compound left tail. -33% drawdown is still conditional on at least 2 failures. ~16%.

Mgmt floor signals (treasury at $36.20, founder Altschuler stays as Chair) suggest institutional support around -25% level. -33% requires breaking insider conviction. ~13%.

-33% in 8 months requires compound failure. Treasury floor at -25%. ~15%.

Multiple supports (profitability, conversion price, treasury). Below coin-flip on left tail. ~14%.

Tail scenarios real but bounded. Single-touch over 8 months provides modest probability. ~16%.