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XMTRActive

Will Xometry stock close at or below $32.00 on any trading day before December 31, 2026?

Resolves December 31, 2026(156d)

IG: 0.60

Current Prediction

15%

Likely No

Model Agreement97%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 25, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Tests left tail of equity distribution. $32 = ~33% drawdown, well below 2030 Notes conversion ($47.06), would reactivate dilution-via-refinancing risk. Black Swan Beacon compound scenarios sum to meaningful probability of MATERIAL multiple compression toward mature B2B distribution multiples.

TAIL_RISK_SEVERITYASSUMPTION_FRAGILITY

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 13% – 17%Aggregate: 15%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

15%

$32 = -33% from current $47.71. Black Swan Beacon compound scenarios: A (15-25%), B (10-20%), C (5-15%), Thesis Killer (5-10%) — but each requires multiple simultaneous failures. Single-leg scenarios alone don't typically reach -33% drawdown. Treasury floor $36.20 = -25% from current. Below $36 requires 2+ scenarios crystallizing. ~15%.

-33% requires compoundTreasury floor $36.20Single-leg insufficient

opusRun 2

13%

Small-cap industrial growth -33% drawdown probability in 8-month window with positive earnings momentum: ~12-15%. Profitability inflection achieved ($18.5M Adj EBITDA) provides multiple-floor support. 2030 Notes conversion at $47.06 creates investor cohort with 'stay above' incentive. ~13%.

Base rate 12-15%Profitability floorConvert holder incentive

opusRun 3

17%

Counter: any-day-touch over 8 months gives probability boost over year-end close. Macro recession + Q1 miss could cluster. CEO transition uncertainty creates 2H tail risk window. CONSENSUS_BLINDSPOT (narrative moat) could amplify selling on any thesis crack. ~17%.

Single-touch boostMacro + Q1 miss clusterNarrative fragility amplifies

sonnetRun 1

14%

Compound failure (5-10% Thesis Killer) + standalone scenarios (~8% touching this level). Treasury floor at $36.20 provides meaningful resistance. ~14%.

Thesis Killer 5-10%Standalone overlapTreasury floor

sonnetRun 2

16%

Marketplace GM compression + customer loss + transition friction = compound left tail. -33% drawdown is still conditional on at least 2 failures. ~16%.

Compound left tail2+ failures conditional

sonnetRun 3

13%

Mgmt floor signals (treasury at $36.20, founder Altschuler stays as Chair) suggest institutional support around -25% level. -33% requires breaking insider conviction. ~13%.

Mgmt floor signalsInsider conviction break needed

haikuRun 1

15%

-33% in 8 months requires compound failure. Treasury floor at -25%. ~15%.

-33% compoundTreasury -25%

haikuRun 2

14%

Multiple supports (profitability, conversion price, treasury). Below coin-flip on left tail. ~14%.

Multiple supportsLeft tail bounded

haikuRun 3

16%

Tail scenarios real but bounded. Single-touch over 8 months provides modest probability. ~16%.

Tail boundedSingle-touch boost

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if XMTR's closing price on any trading day between April 26, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive) is at or below $32.00, as reported by Nasdaq. Resolves NO if no closing price reaches $32.00 within the window.

Resolution Source

Nasdaq daily closing prices

Source Trigger

Compound tail scenarios sum to 30-60% probability of MATERIAL multiple compression

black-swan-beaconTAIL_RISK_SEVERITYMEDIUM

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