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Will Zillow achieve a net reduction in diluted share count of at least 3% in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)
IG: 0.48

Current Prediction

15%
Likely No
Model Agreement97%
Predictions9 runs
Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

The $2.6B buyback program has produced only 2M net share reduction due to SBC offset. Whether the buyback can achieve meaningful net share count reduction tests the Myth Meter's observation that buyback narrative is stronger than economics.

GOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENTNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%
opus
sonnet
haiku
Range: 10% – 19%Aggregate: 15%
Individual Predictions(9 runs)
opusRun 1
16%

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Increased buyback pace possible provides partial support, but fy2025 net reduction was <1% creates counterweight. Probability: 0.16.

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possibleFY2025 net reduction was <1%
opusRun 2
10%

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Increased buyback pace possible provides partial support, but fy2025 net reduction was <1% creates counterweight. Probability: 0.1.

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possibleFY2025 net reduction was <1%
opusRun 3
19%

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Increased buyback pace possible provides partial support, but fy2025 net reduction was <1% creates counterweight. Probability: 0.19.

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possibleFY2025 net reduction was <1%
sonnetRun 1
14%

Base rate evidence: fy2025 net reduction was <1%. Partial offset from increased buyback pace possible. Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Probability: 0.14.

FY2025 net reduction was <1%Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possible
sonnetRun 2
10%

Base rate evidence: fy2025 net reduction was <1%. Partial offset from increased buyback pace possible. Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Probability: 0.1.

FY2025 net reduction was <1%Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possible
sonnetRun 3
17%

Base rate evidence: fy2025 net reduction was <1%. Partial offset from increased buyback pace possible. Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Probability: 0.17.

FY2025 net reduction was <1%Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possible
haikuRun 1
15%

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Balance of evidence suggests 0.15 probability. Primary support: increased buyback pace possible. Main counterargument: fy2025 net reduction was <1%.

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possibleFY2025 net reduction was <1%
haikuRun 2
10%

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Balance of evidence suggests 0.1 probability. Primary support: increased buyback pace possible. Main counterargument: fy2025 net reduction was <1%.

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possibleFY2025 net reduction was <1%
haikuRun 3
15%

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilution. Balance of evidence suggests 0.15 probability. Primary support: increased buyback pace possible. Main counterargument: fy2025 net reduction was <1%.

Arithmetic does not work - buyback at current pace barely offsets SBC dilutionIncreased buyback pace possibleFY2025 net reduction was <1%

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Zillow's FY2026 weighted average diluted share count is at least 3% lower than FY2025. Resolves NO if the reduction is less than 3% or shares increase.

Resolution Source

Zillow Group FY2026 10-K filing

Source Trigger

$2.6B buyback program produced only 2M net share reduction due to SBC offset; buyback narrative stronger than economics

myth-meterNARRATIVE_REALITY_GAPLOW
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