ZActive

Will Zillow's Rentals segment revenue exceed $900M in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(325d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

33%

Likely No

Model Agreement96%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

Rentals revenue trajectory toward $1B is the most important diversification signal. Reaching $900M+ would demonstrate the segment can become a material revenue pillar. Falling short would suggest the for-sale market dependency is harder to escape than the narrative implies.

REVENUE_DURABILITYCOMPETITIVE_POSITION

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 23% – 34%Aggregate: 33%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

33%

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support. 39% growth trajectory provides partial support, but 39% growth yields only ~$834m - short of $900m creates counterweight. Probability: 0.33.

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900M

opusRun 2

33%

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900M

opusRun 3

33%

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900M

sonnetRun 1

23%

Base rate evidence: 39% growth yields only ~$834m - short of $900m. Partial offset from 39% growth trajectory. Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support. Probability: 0.23.

39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900MMaintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory

sonnetRun 2

34%

39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900MMaintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory

sonnetRun 3

28%

39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900MMaintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory

haikuRun 1

30%

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support. Balance of evidence suggests 0.3 probability. Primary support: 39% growth trajectory. Main counterargument: 39% growth yields only ~$834m - short of $900m.

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900M

haikuRun 2

34%

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support. Balance of evidence suggests 0.34 probability. Primary support: 39% growth trajectory. Main counterargument: 39% growth yields only ~$834m - short of $900m.

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900M

haikuRun 3

30%

Maintaining 39% growth falls short; $900M requires acceleration that market may not support39% growth trajectory39% growth yields only ~$834M - short of $900M

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Zillow's Rentals segment reports FY2026 revenue exceeding $900M. Resolves NO if Rentals revenue is $900M or below.

Resolution Source

Zillow Group FY2026 10-K filing or Q4 2026 earnings release

Source Trigger

Rentals at 26% of revenue and growing 39%; reaching 30%+ would materially improve revenue durability classification

gravy-gaugeREVENUE_DURABILITYMEDIUM

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