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ZActive

Will Zillow reduce stock-based compensation below 15% of total revenue in FY2026?

Resolves February 28, 2027(235d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

43%

Likely No

Model Agreement95%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedApril 8, 2026

Why This Question Matters

SBC as percentage of revenue is the key variable determining whether GAAP profitability becomes meaningful. Currently at ~17%, declining below 15% would validate the trajectory. Persistent high SBC would confirm the Fugazi Filter's QUESTIONABLE assessment.

ACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYGOVERNANCE_ALIGNMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 36% – 52%Aggregate: 43%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

43%

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievable. Revenue growing 16% provides partial support, but sbc rarely declines in absolute dollars creates counterweight. Probability: 0.43.

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%SBC rarely declines in absolute dollars

opusRun 2

49%

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%SBC rarely declines in absolute dollars

opusRun 3

38%

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%SBC rarely declines in absolute dollars

sonnetRun 1

42%

Base rate evidence: sbc rarely declines in absolute dollars. Partial offset from revenue growing 16%. Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievable. Probability: 0.42.

SBC rarely declines in absolute dollarsOutcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%

sonnetRun 2

46%

SBC rarely declines in absolute dollarsOutcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%

sonnetRun 3

49%

SBC rarely declines in absolute dollarsOutcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%

haikuRun 1

52%

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievable. Balance of evidence suggests 0.52 probability. Primary support: revenue growing 16%. Main counterargument: sbc rarely declines in absolute dollars.

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%SBC rarely declines in absolute dollars

haikuRun 2

43%

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievable. Balance of evidence suggests 0.43 probability. Primary support: revenue growing 16%. Main counterargument: sbc rarely declines in absolute dollars.

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%SBC rarely declines in absolute dollars

haikuRun 3

36%

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievable. Balance of evidence suggests 0.36 probability. Primary support: revenue growing 16%. Main counterargument: sbc rarely declines in absolute dollars.

Outcome highly sensitive to revenue growth rate - 15%+ growth makes it achievableRevenue growing 16%SBC rarely declines in absolute dollars

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Zillow's FY2026 stock-based compensation expense is below 15% of total revenue. Resolves NO if SBC is 15% or above as a percentage of revenue.

Resolution Source

Zillow Group FY2026 10-K filing

Source Trigger

SBC at ~17% of revenue; decline below 15% determines whether GAAP profitability becomes meaningful

fugazi-filterACCOUNTING_INTEGRITYMEDIUM

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