RuncheyResearch

AI Absorption Ledger / CEG

Constellation Energy

CEG · Q2 2026 · reported 2026-08-06 · revenue $7.50bn

Assessment

The channels hold where they were in Q1: the revenue channels described and unsized because nothing has started, and the capital spending behind them described and unsized because the company names AI only beside the general growth of data centres and nothing separates AI’s part. No channel carries a size. For the first time in the covered quarters the CEO himself names AI, saying the returns on customers’ investments in the data economy and AI models are proving out (c7); the filings and releases still do not mention AI.

The Crane restart moved closer: fuel licence and interconnection approvals, with service now expected in the second half of 2027 rather than 2028. The 10-Q names the restart and co-location infrastructure among the causes of higher capital expenditures, in the quarter against , without amounts; that line, capital and left out of totals, is the ceiling on any AI part, and no AI share of it is stated.

The quarter’s largest contracting news is not a channel. The company signed MW of nuclear PPAs with investment grade customers, starting in 2029 through 2032, one of them with Walmart for MW; the CEO declines to say whether any is a hyperscaler and the sources do not say data centres (c11, c12). Roughly of clean baseload output is now under long-term agreements.

Calpine again bends comparisons: operating revenues rose on the year with the Calpine segment at . The other reportable segments’ revenues were against , a change of ; the rest of the movement in the total is the Other row and unrealized gains and losses on derivatives, which the 10-Q does not allocate to segments. None of the movement is attributed to AI.

Paid for AI1 channel · 1 not sized

other

Capital spending on the Crane restart and data-centre co-location infrastructure

Not sized

AI named beside another cause: the company names hyperscalers’ AI investments only as contributing to data-centre demand, and neither the company nor a measure separates AI’s part of the load this build serves, so no ballpark is built on a judgment AI share; the ceiling (the quarter’s capital expenditures, the anchor’s restart estimate and growth capital plan) is in the metrics.

described, no sizedisclosure: described· motive: exploratory· before LLMs: expanded· layer: facilities

Capital expenditures were in the quarter, the first half less Q1, against a year earlier; for the first time the 10-Q names the Crane restart and co-location infrastructure among the causes, beside Calpine, with no amounts (c4). The DOE-backed loan is still undrawn (c5). The ceiling on the AI part is the quarter’s whole capital line and, for the restart, the anchor’s estimate of inside of growth capital planned for 2025 and 2026, both set before Calpine and before the restart moved to 2027. Capital spending is left out of totals.

Evidence: 5 quotes, 6 figures, 3 confounds, 3 from before coverage

Capital expenditures that build supply for data-centre customers: the restart of Crane, whose output is contracted to Microsoft, and the co-location infrastructure (substations and site work) for the powered-land sites. The Q2 2026 10-Q names both among the causes of higher capital expenditures, beside the inclusion of Calpine, and gives no amount for either. Capitalized, so the channel is traced and shown and left out of flow totals; once in service it reaches the income statement as depreciation, which no covered quarter carries yet. Funded from operations: the anchor estimated the restart from cash from operations, and a Department of Energy backed loan for the restart had not been drawn by either 10-Q. The payees are equipment makers, fuel suppliers and contractors. The company names AI only beside the general expansion of data centres (its 2024 annual report says hyperscalers’ AI investments are “further contributing” to demand), and neither the company nor any measure separates AI’s part of the data-centre load this build serves. Under the joint-cause rule the channel is described and unsized, with no ballpark built on a judgment AI share; the ceiling is quoted instead: the anchor’s restart estimate, its growth capital plan for 2025 and 2026, and the quarter’s capital expenditures line, of which the AI part is some unstated share. The remainder is the non-AI load the same data centres carry and, in the capital line, everything else the fleet spends on.

Why this motive

Carried from Q1: capital committed ahead of revenue for a restart expected in 2027 (c4, c2).

Before LLMs: expanded

At the anchor the restart was estimated at of capital expenditures funded from operations, inside of growth capital expenditures planned for 2025 and 2026 that also covered nuclear uprates, behind-the-meter infrastructure and licence renewals. Capital spending on generation predates LLMs; no quarter of this build before AI can be traced. The size is the whole of an activity that existed before.

“Many news reports indicate the rapid expansion of data centers and the need for increased energy supply to meet future demand. Significant planned investments from hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and infrastructure are further contributing to unprecedented demand for reliable, around-the-clock energy in the U.S and abroad.”
Filing, business, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-18
“Under the agreement, Microsoft will purchase the output generated from the renewed plant which includes energy, capacity and carbon-free attributes as part of its goal to help power its data centers in PJM with clean energy. The site, which is expected to be online in 2028, will have approximately 835 MWs of carbon-free capacity.”
Filing, business, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-18
“We estimate the project will require approximately $1.6 billion of cash from operations for capital expenditures necessary to restart the plant, with an estimated in-service date of 2028.”
Filing, mdna, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-18

Figures

  • Capital expenditures, the quarter (six months less Q1) · 2026-CQ2
  • Capital expenditures, prior-year quarter (six months less Q1) · 2025-CQ2
  • Capital expenditures (cash flow statement), six months · 2026-01-01..2026-06-30
  • Capital expenditures (cash flow statement), six months of the prior year · 2025-01-01..2025-06-30
  • Estimated capital expenditures to restart Crane, from cash from operations (fiscal 2024 estimate) · as-of 2024-12-31
  • Growth capital expenditures planned for 2025 and 2026, including the Crane restart, uprates, behind-the-meter infrastructure and licence renewals · 2025-01-01..2026-12-31

What else could explain it

  • acquisition: The 10-Q names the inclusion of Calpine beside the restart and co-location infrastructure as causes of higher capital expenditures, without a split.
  • line composition: The capital line also holds nuclear fuel, outage work and other projects.
  • other: Joint cause: the company names AI only beside the general expansion of data centres (ceg-anchor-c1), and the 10-Q names the restart and co-location infrastructure without AI; the quarter’s only AI sentence is the CEO’s general remark on customers’ AI models (c7). Nothing separates AI’s part.

Quotes

“Additionally, the NRC has approved a fuel license amendment request for the Crane Clean Energy Center — a major milestone moving us closer to restarting operations in 2027.”
c1 · Filing, press release, 8-K earnings release, 2026-08-06
“During the quarter, the NRC approved the Crane new fuel licensing amendment request, clearing the path for the receipt of new fuel and representing another significant milestone towards returning the facility to service in the second half of 2027.”
c2 · CEO, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2026-08-06
“The restart is supported by a 20-year PPA with Microsoft to purchase the output generated from the renewed plant. The restart of the plant and delivery of electricity under the PPA is subject to certain regulatory approvals, including the NRC comprehensive safety and environmental review, as well as permits from relevant state and local agencies.”
c3 · Filing, notes, 10-Q periodic report, 2026-08-06
“The change is primarily related to cash paid, net of cash acquired, for the Calpine acquisition and an increase in capital expenditures related to the planned restart of Crane, inclusion of Calpine, and co-location infrastructure.”
c4 · Filing, mdna, 10-Q periodic report, 2026-08-06
“There have been no borrowings on this loan as of the date of this filing.”
c5 · Filing, notes, 10-Q periodic report, 2026-08-06

By quarter

  • Q1 2026described · described, no size · exploratory
  • Q2 2026described · described, no size · exploratory

Revenue arriving through AI2 channels · 2 not sized

customer cohort

Crane restart output sold to Microsoft under a long-term PPA for its PJM data centres

Not sized

Not yet revenue: delivery under the PPA starts at the restart, expected in the second half of 2027; a contract that starts after the quarter is described, never sized at zero.

described, no sizedisclosure: described· motive: exploratory· before LLMs: expanded· layer: facilities

The NRC approved Crane’s fuel licence amendment and FERC the transfer of interconnection rights, and the company now expects the restart in 2027, earlier than the 2028 the anchor gave (c1, c2, c17). The CEO names AI for the first time in the covered quarters: the returns on customers’ investments in the data economy and AI models are proving out (c7). The PPA, of years, earns nothing until then; Microsoft is on this ledger as MSFT, where this money, once delivered, is part of the cost of its data centres.

Evidence: 6 quotes, 2 figures, 2 confounds, 5 from before coverage

Microsoft purchases the energy, capacity and carbon-free attributes of the restarted Crane Clean Energy Center (formerly Three Mile Island) under a long-term power purchase agreement signed in 2024, to help power its data centres in PJM. The company names AI as a cause of hyperscaler demand for power: its 2024 annual report says hyperscalers’ planned investments in AI technology and infrastructure are contributing to unprecedented demand, and the CEO said in Q2 2026 that the returns on customers’ investments in the data economy and AI models are proving out. It does not say what share of Microsoft’s load is AI work, so a size, once the plant runs, is a ceiling on the AI part; the remainder is the general cloud and enterprise services Microsoft runs in the same data centres. Delivery starts only when the plant restarts, which management expects in the second half of 2027, so no revenue is in the covered quarters and the channel is described and unsized. Microsoft is on this ledger as MSFT, where the same money, once delivered, is part of the cost of running its data centres; this ledger records each company’s own flows and does not net them. The CEO also refers to earlier carbon-free energy agreements with Microsoft; the sources do not say whether they serve data centres or what they bring in, and they are not sized here.

Why this motive

Carried from Q1 and still pre-revenue: the restart is expected in the second half of 2027 (c2).

Before LLMs: expanded

At the anchor the agreement had just been signed: Microsoft was to purchase the output of the restarted plant, about megawatts of carbon-free capacity, to help power its data centres in PJM, with service then expected in 2028. Selling a plant’s output under a long-term PPA predates LLMs; no revenue had begun and no figure for power sold to data centres was given, so the level has no baseline. The size is the whole of an activity that existed before.

“Many news reports indicate the rapid expansion of data centers and the need for increased energy supply to meet future demand. Significant planned investments from hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and infrastructure are further contributing to unprecedented demand for reliable, around-the-clock energy in the U.S and abroad.”
Filing, business, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-18
“Under the agreement, Microsoft will purchase the output generated from the renewed plant which includes energy, capacity and carbon-free attributes as part of its goal to help power its data centers in PJM with clean energy. The site, which is expected to be online in 2028, will have approximately 835 MWs of carbon-free capacity.”
Filing, business, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-18
“But I think what I am comfortable saying is this, David: we're seeing interest in developing projects that are on a size and scale that presently don't exist but will be needed for training systems and other things to kind of build out and support the need for all of these foundational models.”
CEO, qa, earnings call, 2024-05-09
“But this is more stuff that begins in 2026, 2027, 2028, and it ramps over time as the data centers are built.”
CEO, qa, earnings call, 2024-05-09
“to help America power the technologies of the future, whether that be EVs, electric heating, and industrialization where we've got a lot to go, or in the booming demand for artificial intelligence technologies and other digital infrastructure projects.”
CEO, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2024-05-09

Figures

  • Crane PPA term, years · as-of 2026-06-30
  • Crane carbon-free capacity under the Microsoft PPA, megawatts · as-of 2024-12-31

What else could explain it

  • line composition: Microsoft’s PJM data centres also run general cloud and enterprise services; no AI share is stated, so any size is a ceiling on the AI part.
  • other: The quarter’s filings and releases do not name AI; the only AI sentence is the CEO’s general remark on customers’ AI models (c7), not about this contract, so the AI cause still rests on the anchor.

Quotes

“Additionally, the NRC has approved a fuel license amendment request for the Crane Clean Energy Center — a major milestone moving us closer to restarting operations in 2027.”
c1 · Filing, press release, 8-K earnings release, 2026-08-06
“During the quarter, the NRC approved the Crane new fuel licensing amendment request, clearing the path for the receipt of new fuel and representing another significant milestone towards returning the facility to service in the second half of 2027.”
c2 · CEO, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2026-08-06
“The restart is supported by a 20-year PPA with Microsoft to purchase the output generated from the renewed plant. The restart of the plant and delivery of electricity under the PPA is subject to certain regulatory approvals, including the NRC comprehensive safety and environmental review, as well as permits from relevant state and local agencies.”
c3 · Filing, notes, 10-Q periodic report, 2026-08-06
“The returns for the investments they're making in data economy and these AI models are proving out. What our customers want is to understand the rules of the road, and then they'll manage around them.”
c7 · CEO, qa, earnings call, 2026-08-06
“I think what we'll see is very shortly, the entirety of the data economy investing what could be upwards of $1 trillion in infrastructure annually when you put all the pieces together.”
c8 · CEO, qa, earnings call, 2026-08-06
“FERC approved our waiver request to transfer CIRs from the dual fuel Eddystone Units 3 and 4 in Pennsylvania to the Crane Clean Energy Center.”
c17 · Filing, press release, 8-K earnings release, 2026-08-06

By quarter

  • Q1 2026described · described, no size · exploratory
  • Q2 2026described · described, no size · exploratory

customer cohort

Powered land and co-located power for data-centre developers in Texas

Not sized

Not yet revenue: the stored sources give no start for any site, the Freestone substation was due in Q4 2026, and the CEO says most Texas data centres are not yet on the grid.

described, no sizedisclosure: described· motive: exploratory· before LLMs: expanded· layer: facilities

The 10-Q repeats the MW agreement at Freestone and the MW at Thad Hill (c6, c18). The CEO says the projects came with Calpine, have their approvals and are proceeding with clients, with some sites in the ERCOT Batch Zero review (c9), and that most Texas data centres are still being built (c10). No revenue, price or start date is given, so nothing is sized.

Evidence: 5 quotes, 2 figures, 3 confounds, 6 from before coverage

Shovel-ready data-centre sites beside the company’s gas plants in ERCOT, sold with power, grid connectivity and site infrastructure: CyrusOne at the Thad Hill Energy Center, under agreements Calpine signed in the second half of 2025 before the acquisition, and at the Freestone Energy Center, signed in Q1 2026 with an exclusive agreement for a second phase. CyrusOne is a data-centre developer and operator; the sources do not name its tenants, so the counterparty reads enterprise, and the power is a ceiling on any AI part, whose non-AI remainder is the enterprise colocation and general cloud work such sites also house. The AI cause rests on the company’s own words at the anchor (training data centres for foundation models) and in Q2 2026 (customers’ AI models), not on any statement about these sites. The Freestone substation is to be energized in Q4 2026, and the CEO says most Texas data centres are still under construction and not on the grid; the stored sources give no start date or revenue for Thad Hill, so nothing is sized. The Thad Hill agreements were signed by Calpine before the acquisition closed on 2026-01-07, and Calpine is not an AI company: under the acquisitions rule they are excluded from any future size of this channel and nothing from them is credited to AI. The Freestone agreement was signed in February 2026, after the close, by the combined company, and stays in.

Why this motive

Carried from Q1 and still pre-revenue: most anticipated Texas data centres are under construction and not on the grid (c10).

Before LLMs: expanded

At the anchor co-location of data centres at existing plants was part of the stated strategy, and the CEO described colocation talks with data-centre customers whose contracts would begin in 2026 to 2028 and ramp as the data centres are built; no powered-land agreement or revenue was given, so the level has no baseline. The size is the whole of an activity that existed before.

“Many news reports indicate the rapid expansion of data centers and the need for increased energy supply to meet future demand. Significant planned investments from hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and infrastructure are further contributing to unprecedented demand for reliable, around-the-clock energy in the U.S and abroad.”
Filing, business, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-18
“Create new value from the existing fleet through nuclear uprates and license extensions, repowering of renewables, co-location of data centers, production of clean hydrogen, and other opportunities,”
Filing, business, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-18
“But I think what I am comfortable saying is this, David: we're seeing interest in developing projects that are on a size and scale that presently don't exist but will be needed for training systems and other things to kind of build out and support the need for all of these foundational models.”
CEO, qa, earnings call, 2024-05-09
“So a number of these customers are looking at colocation opportunities to hasten the speed in which they could become operational.”
CEO, qa, earnings call, 2024-05-09
“But this is more stuff that begins in 2026, 2027, 2028, and it ramps over time as the data centers are built.”
CEO, qa, earnings call, 2024-05-09
“to help America power the technologies of the future, whether that be EVs, electric heating, and industrialization where we've got a lot to go, or in the booming demand for artificial intelligence technologies and other digital infrastructure projects.”
CEO, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2024-05-09

Figures

  • CyrusOne data center at Freestone, megawatts · as-of 2026-06-30
  • CyrusOne agreements at Thad Hill, megawatts · as-of 2026-06-30

What else could explain it

  • acquisition: The CEO says the Texas projects came with Calpine. The Thad Hill agreements ( MW) were signed by Calpine before the 2026-01-07 close and are excluded from any future size of this channel, with nothing credited to AI; Freestone, signed in February 2026 after the close, stays in.
  • line composition: A data-centre developer’s sites also house enterprise colocation and general cloud work; the company states no AI share.
  • other: The quarter’s filings and releases do not name AI; the only AI sentence is the CEO’s general remark on customers’ AI models (c7), not about these sites, so the AI cause still rests on the anchor.

Quotes

“In the first quarter of 2026, we signed a new 380 MW agreement with Dallas-based CyrusOne, a leading global data center developer and operator, to connect and serve a new data center adjacent to the Freestone Energy Center, in Freestone County, Texas.”
c6 · Filing, mdna, 10-Q periodic report, 2026-08-06
“The returns for the investments they're making in data economy and these AI models are proving out. What our customers want is to understand the rules of the road, and then they'll manage around them.”
c7 · CEO, qa, earnings call, 2026-08-06
“We also have, by virtue of the acquisition of Calpine, some projects that were really early first movers, I think, in Texas, where we've gotten through three necessary approvals and we're proceeding with clients on it. Some of our sites are in the Batch Zero process.”
c9 · CEO, qa, earnings call, 2026-08-06
“We talk a lot about data centers in Texas, but if you really take a look at where the construction of that build-out lies, you'd find that the vast majority of the data centers that are anticipated are still at some stage of construction and not on the grid.”
c10 · CEO, qa, earnings call, 2026-08-06
“These agreements are in addition to the 400 MW agreements announced in the second half of last year between Calpine and CyrusOne for the Thad Hill Energy Center in Bosque County, Texas.”
c18 · Filing, mdna, 10-Q periodic report, 2026-08-06

By quarter

  • Q1 2026described · described, no size · exploratory
  • Q2 2026described · described, no size · exploratory

Reported lines, year-over-year growth

Revenue +23.0%

Q2 2026. No tracked cost line grew slower than revenue. A displaced cost shows up as a line that stays under the dashed revenue line. These are the audited lines, as first reported; nothing here is attributed to AI by the filing.

Purchased power and fuelOperating and maintenanceTotal operating expensesRevenue
-20%0%20%40%60%80%Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Operating and maintenanceTotal operating expensesPurchased power and fuelRevenue
Reported values and filings
LineQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Total operating revenues$6.79bn$6.10bn$6.57bn$6.07bn$11.12bn$7.50bn
Purchased power and fuel$4.38bn$3.13bn$3.57bn$3.60bn$6.35bn$4.02bn
Operating and maintenance$1.54bn$1.62bn$1.51bn$1.49bn$1.78bn$2.25bn
Total operating expenses$6.34bn$5.15bn$5.48bn$5.48bn$8.80bn$6.93bn