AI Absorption Ledger / CVX

Chevron

CVX · Q2 2026 · reported 2026-07-31 · revenue $70.06bn

Assessment

Chevron's AI money in Q2 2026 is all prospective. The release and the call name AI for the first time in coverage, as the cause of the electricity demand behind Project Kilby: a take-or-pay agreement with Microsoft for about gigawatts of behind-the-meter power over years for a West Texas data center complex, before its final investment decision. The revenue has not started and the capital being spent on the plant is not given, so both channels are read described and unsized; consolidated capex of and affiliate capex of are quoted as the ceiling on the build. Both are tagged expanded: the anchor 10-K already planned gas-fired power for data centers, and in coverage new capacity is contracted for a data-centre customer.

The company's own use of AI appears only in two passing remarks by the CEO, kept as context with no channel. On exploration he says the company is going to use new tools and that AI will change cycle time and outcomes (claim c11), a forward-looking statement; the discoveries he cites are credited to the portfolio (claim c12), and exploration expenses rose on higher geological and geophysical engineering costs (claim c17). On the Permian he says there are interesting things going on with AI (claim c13), naming no function.

The cost story of the quarter is not AI. The structural cost program reached of annual run-rate savings six months early, with credited to efficiency gains from the reorganization, technology achievements and improvement initiatives (claims c14 and c16), and operating and administrative expenses are explained by Hess, transportation and lower employee expenses (claim c19). Management names none of it as AI, so it is a confound and not a saving. Revenue grew to on higher prices and production; operating expenses rose and administrative expenses .

Paid for AI1 channel · 1 not sized

other

Capital spending on the Project Kilby power facility

Not sized

No source gives the project’s spending or the segment that carries it, and the AI share of the load the plant serves is not stated, so any size would be a judgment share of consolidated capex under a ceiling on an unstated AI share. The channel is read described and unsized (methodology, AI named beside another cause, which covers capital named together with AI); the ceiling, consolidated capex of and affiliate capex of , is quoted in the metrics.

described, no sizedisclosure: described· motive: exploratory· before LLMs: expanded· layer: facilities

Opened this quarter. The project is spending ahead of a final investment decision: large turbines and small block generation secured, an EPC contractor engaged and turbine deliveries beginning during 2026 (claims c4, c5 and c2), with turbine queue talks under way with GE Vernova and other manufacturers (claim c10). No amount is given. U.S. capex outside upstream and downstream was against a year earlier, which shows no step up, though the filing does not say which segment carries the project. It is capital, shown and left out of the spend total. Funding is read operating-cash-flow: the sources support the organic part, paid from the company’s own cash; the CFO also places part in the affiliate outlook, but no source names the affiliate or its partners and the quarter’s affiliate capex shows no power row, so mixed funding is not supported (Engine No. 1 was party to the Q1 exclusivity agreement on the offtake, claim c3, not named as an investor).

Evidence: 5 quotes, 4 figures, 3 confounds, 2 from before coverage

Capital spent developing Project Kilby ahead of a final investment decision expected later in 2026: large gas turbines and small block generation secured from manufacturers including GE Vernova, engineering by a selected EPC contractor, an air permit and water supply. The CFO says the project sits in both the organic and the affiliate capital outlooks; no source names the affiliate or its partners, and no amount is given in any source, so the channel is described and unsized, with consolidated and affiliate capital expenditures quoted as the ceiling. Capitalized, so it is traced and shown and left out of flow totals (methodology, capital spending); it would reach the income statement as depreciation once the plant runs.

Why this motive

Spending on a plant ahead of its revenue and ahead of a final investment decision (claim c2) is the exploratory tell, as on Verizon's success-based fiber capital for AI customers.

Before LLMs: expanded

At the anchor the FY2024 10-K reported plans to jointly develop scalable natural gas-fired turbine power for U.S. data centers and listed power generation for data centers among the new energies businesses, with no AI named (anchor claims cvx-anchor-c4 and cvx-anchor-c5); no spending on it was given. Capital spending on generation predates LLMs and no quarter of this build before AI can be traced, so the level has no baseline. In coverage the plant is being built for capacity contracted to a data-centre customer, so volume moved and the tag is expanded (methodology, facilities for data centres). The size is the whole of an activity that existed before.

“These include additional fuel solutions utilizing hydrogen and its derivatives such as ammonia, carbon emissions management through carbon capture and offsets, and power generation for data centers.”
Filing, business, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-21
“Announced plans to jointly develop scalable power solutions using natural gas-fired turbines with flexibility to integrate carbon capture and storage to support growing energy demand from U.S. data centers.”
Filing, mdna, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-21

Figures

  • Capital expenditures (consolidated) · 2026-CQ2
  • Affiliate capital expenditures (not included in consolidated capex) · 2026-CQ2
  • Capital expenditures, United States, Other (outside upstream and downstream) · 2026-CQ2
  • Capital expenditures, United States, Other, prior year · 2025-CQ2

What else could explain it

  • line composition: Consolidated capex of holds upstream, downstream and legacy Hess spending, which the 10-Q names as the reason capex rose; no power share is given, and no filing says which segment holds the project. It is the ceiling on the organic part, not a size.
  • other: The CFO places Kilby in both the organic and the affiliate capital outlooks (claim c9). The quarter’s affiliate capex of is outside consolidated capex and its rows are upstream and downstream only, so no affiliate power spending is visible in the quarter.
  • other: Data-centre demand is not an AI label: the plant serves a data center complex whose AI share of load is not stated, and the President of New Energies names demand from hyperscalers and others (claims c1 and c7).

Quotes

“The U.S. is undergoing a structural shift in electricity demand as AI accelerates and reliable power is becoming the critical constraint.”
c1 · Executive, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2026-07-31
“We recently signed a 20-year take-or-pay power purchase agreement with Microsoft for 2.67 GW of firm behind-the-meter capacity supporting its co-located data center complex. We're now focused on execution, with permitting and EPC activities progressing towards a final investment decision later this year.”
c2 · Executive, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2026-07-31
“Signed an agreement to develop a power facility in West Texas designed to provide approximately 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter dedicated electricity capacity to Microsoft under a 20-year power purchase agreement.”
c6 · Filing, mdna, 10-Q periodic report, 2026-08-06
“Within that, we had expected to have a power project within that capital range. The one that Jeff talked about, Project Kilby, is reflected in both the organic capital outlook and range and the affiliate capital outlook and range.”
c9 · CFO, qa, earnings call, 2026-07-31
“When we look to the future, turbine availability is tight. We have some deep relationships with GE Vernova and other manufacturers. We're already talking to them about their queues.”
c10 · Executive, qa, earnings call, 2026-07-31

Revenue arriving through AI1 channel · 1 not sized

product revenue

Power sold to a Microsoft data centre from Project Kilby

Not sized

The money has not started: no power is delivered in the quarter. The agreement was signed during the quarter (the call calls it the milestone achieved in June), the facility is under development, and the final investment decision is expected later this year (claims c2 and c6). Neither a price nor a contract value is given, and a multi-year contract is never one quarter’s revenue, so the channel stays described and unsized until power flows (methodology, AI named beside another cause).

described, no sizedisclosure: described· motive: exploratory· before LLMs: expanded· layer: facilities

Opened this quarter. The President of New Energies says U.S. electricity demand is shifting as AI accelerates, and the release quotes the CEO on powering American AI dominance. The company signed a take-or-pay power purchase agreement with Microsoft for about gigawatts of firm behind-the-meter capacity over years for its co-located data center complex in West Texas; Project Kilby is expected to earn mid-teens returns, and no price, contract value or delivery date is given. Expansion beyond the first phase has not been agreed (claim c8). Microsoft is on this ledger (MSFT): once power flows, this revenue is the same money as power cost inside Microsoft's data-centre spending, and it sits in the facilities layer, never added to Microsoft's compute layer.

Evidence: 8 quotes, 2 figures, 1 confound, 2 from before coverage

Revenue the company would earn selling electricity from Project Kilby, a natural gas-fired power facility under development in West Texas, to Microsoft under a long-term take-or-pay power purchase agreement for firm behind-the-meter capacity at Microsoft's co-located data center complex. The President of New Energies ties the business to the shift in electricity demand as AI accelerates, and the release to powering American AI dominance. The agreement was signed in Q2 2026 and the final investment decision is expected later in 2026: no power is delivered in coverage, so the channel is prospective and left unsized until revenue exists, with its dates quoted. Microsoft (MSFT on this ledger) is a hyperscaler, so the counterparty is cloud-provider, and once power flows this is the same money as the data-centre power cost on Microsoft's side. A data centre's power is a ceiling on the AI part: the complex may also carry cloud and other workloads, and no AI share is stated.

Why this motive

A signed take-or-pay agreement with a stated return target (claims c2 and c3) points to offensive, while the plant is before its final investment decision and delivers nothing in the quarter, the exploratory tell for a pre-revenue product. With the tells in conflict the less durable motive is kept, as on Verizon's AI fiber agreements (c4).

Before LLMs: expanded

At the anchor the FY2024 10-K already listed power generation for data centers among the new energies businesses and reported plans to jointly develop natural gas-fired power to support growing energy demand from U.S. data centers, with no AI named (anchor claims cvx-anchor-c4 and cvx-anchor-c5). Selling power predates LLMs; no revenue line held it then and no power is delivered in coverage, so the level has no baseline. In coverage new capacity is contracted for a data-centre customer (the Microsoft agreement), so volume moved and the tag is expanded (methodology, facilities for data centres). The size is the whole of an activity that existed before.

“These include additional fuel solutions utilizing hydrogen and its derivatives such as ammonia, carbon emissions management through carbon capture and offsets, and power generation for data centers.”
Filing, business, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-21
“Announced plans to jointly develop scalable power solutions using natural gas-fired turbines with flexibility to integrate carbon capture and storage to support growing energy demand from U.S. data centers.”
Filing, mdna, 10-K periodic report, 2025-02-21

Figures

  • Project Kilby behind-the-meter capacity contracted to Microsoft, gigawatts · as-of 2026-06-30
  • Term of the Microsoft power purchase agreement, years · as-of 2026-06-30

What else could explain it

  • other: Data-centre demand is not an AI label. The release and the call name AI as the cause of the electricity demand (claims c1 and c4), but the power serves a data center complex whose workloads are not stated, and the President of New Energies names demand from hyperscalers and others (claim c7). Any revenue would be a ceiling on the AI part.

Quotes

“The U.S. is undergoing a structural shift in electricity demand as AI accelerates and reliable power is becoming the critical constraint.”
c1 · Executive, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2026-07-31
“We recently signed a 20-year take-or-pay power purchase agreement with Microsoft for 2.67 GW of firm behind-the-meter capacity supporting its co-located data center complex. We're now focused on execution, with permitting and EPC activities progressing towards a final investment decision later this year.”
c2 · Executive, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2026-07-31
“Kilby is expected to deliver mid-teens returns and long-duration contracted cash flows that are independent of commodity price cycles.”
c3 · Executive, prepared remarks, earnings call, 2026-07-31
“And we have positioned the company to help power American AI dominance and generate resilient cash flows through leveraging our unique capabilities”
c4 · CEO, press release, 8-K earnings release, 2026-07-31
“During the quarter, Chevron signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft to provide 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter power for its data center in West Texas.”
c5 · Filing, press release, 8-K earnings release, 2026-07-31
“Signed an agreement to develop a power facility in West Texas designed to provide approximately 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter dedicated electricity capacity to Microsoft under a 20-year power purchase agreement.”
c6 · Filing, mdna, 10-Q periodic report, 2026-08-06
“Demand far exceeds supply. The grid cannot keep up with the demand from hyperscalers and others. We see that persisting for years.”
c7 · Executive, qa, earnings call, 2026-07-31
“There could be expansion potential on the Kilby site after the first phase, after we ramp up to this 2.67 gigawatts. None of that has been agreed or negotiated yet with Microsoft, obviously, their demand needs continue to increase, and we'll work with them to see if we can supply those while meeting our returns thresholds.”
c8 · Executive, qa, earnings call, 2026-07-31

Reported lines, year-over-year growth

Revenue +56.3%

Q2 2026. Growing slower than revenue: purchased crude oil and products (+36.3%), operating expenses (+11.6%), selling, general and administrative (+47.8%), exploration expenses (+1.6%), depreciation, depletion and amortization (+40.0%), total costs and other deductions (+31.2%). A displaced cost shows up as a line that stays under the dashed revenue line. These are the audited lines, as first reported; nothing here is attributed to AI by the filing. Not drawn: exploration expenses, which one-time items move by more than 60% in a quarter; the values are in the table below.

Purchased crude oil and productsOperating expensesSelling, general and administrativeDepreciation, depletion and amortizationTotal costs and other deductionsRevenue
-20%0%20%40%60%Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026RevenueSelling, general and administrativeDepreciation, depletion and amortizationPurchased crude oil and productsTotal costs and other deductionsOperating expenses
Reported values and filings
LineQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Total revenues and other income$47.61bn$44.82bn$49.73bn$46.87bn$48.61bn$70.06bn
Purchased crude oil and products$28.61bn$26.86bn$27.40bn$25.35bn$28.27bn$36.61bn
Operating expenses$6.41bn$6.67bn$7.53bn$7.39bn$7.68bn$7.45bn
Selling, general and administrative$1.22bn$889mn$1.52bn$1.49bn$1.07bn$1.31bn
Exploration expenses$187mn$252mn$288mn$324mn$205mn$256mn
Depreciation, depletion and amortization$4.12bn$4.34bn$5.78bn$5.88bn$5.81bn$6.08bn
Total costs and other deductions$42.03bn$40.67bn$44.31bn$42.27bn$44.66bn$53.37bn