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AAL Forecast Markets
American Airlines Group Inc.
6
Active Markets
1
Resolved
52%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will AAL achieve FY2026 adjusted EPS at or above $1.70 (low end of guidance)?
4%
Likely No
52%4%after Q1 2026 earnings update
98% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will AAL reduce total debt below $35B by year-end 2026?
92%
Likely Yes
50%92%after Q1 2026 earnings update
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will government travel revenue at DCA recover to within 25% of pre-shutdown levels by Q2 2026?
37%
Likely No
35%37%after Q1 2026 earnings update
98% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will AAL generate free cash flow above $2B in FY2026?
55%
Likely Yes
48%55%after Q1 2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will AAL's premium revenue share remain above 50% of total revenue through H1 2026?
84%
Likely Yes
68%84%after Q1 2026 earnings update
97% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will any major credit rating agency upgrade AAL to BB-flat or higher by year-end 2026?
33%
Likely No
27%33%after Q1 2026 earnings update
98% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will AAL report Q1 2026 total revenue growth at or above 7% YoY (low end of guidance)?
60%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.160Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.64
Resolution Timeline
Apr 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will AAL report Q1 2026 total revenue growth at or above 7% YoY (low end of guidance)? YESBrier: 0.16
Jul 31, 2026
Will government travel revenue at DCA recover to within 25% of pre-shutdown levels by Q2 2026?Prediction: 37%
Jul 31, 2026
Will AAL's premium revenue share remain above 50% of total revenue through H1 2026?Prediction: 84%
Jan 15, 2027
Will any major credit rating agency upgrade AAL to BB-flat or higher by year-end 2026?Prediction: 33%
Jan 31, 2027
Will AAL achieve FY2026 adjusted EPS at or above $1.70 (low end of guidance)?Prediction: 4%