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AAL Forecast Markets

American Airlines Group Inc.

6
Active Markets
1
Resolved
52%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 24, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will AAL achieve FY2026 adjusted EPS at or above $1.70 (low end of guidance)?

Active
4%
Likely No
52%4%after Q1 2026 earnings update
98% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will AAL reduce total debt below $35B by year-end 2026?

Active
92%
Likely Yes
50%92%after Q1 2026 earnings update
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will government travel revenue at DCA recover to within 25% of pre-shutdown levels by Q2 2026?

Active
37%
Likely No
35%37%after Q1 2026 earnings update
98% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will AAL generate free cash flow above $2B in FY2026?

Active
55%
Likely Yes
48%55%after Q1 2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will AAL's premium revenue share remain above 50% of total revenue through H1 2026?

Active
84%
Likely Yes
68%84%after Q1 2026 earnings update
97% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will any major credit rating agency upgrade AAL to BB-flat or higher by year-end 2026?

Active
33%
Likely No
27%33%after Q1 2026 earnings update
98% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will AAL report Q1 2026 total revenue growth at or above 7% YoY (low end of guidance)?

Resolved
60%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.160
Apr 23, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

Apr 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will AAL report Q1 2026 total revenue growth at or above 7% YoY (low end of guidance)?
YESBrier: 0.16
Jul 31, 2026
Will government travel revenue at DCA recover to within 25% of pre-shutdown levels by Q2 2026?
Prediction: 37%
Jul 31, 2026
Will AAL's premium revenue share remain above 50% of total revenue through H1 2026?
Prediction: 84%
Jan 15, 2027
Will any major credit rating agency upgrade AAL to BB-flat or higher by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 33%
Jan 31, 2027
Will AAL achieve FY2026 adjusted EPS at or above $1.70 (low end of guidance)?
Prediction: 4%
Jan 31, 2027
Will AAL generate free cash flow above $2B in FY2026?
Prediction: 55%
Feb 28, 2027
Will AAL reduce total debt below $35B by year-end 2026?
Prediction: 92%