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CAR Forecast Markets

Avis Budget Group

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
35%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Apr 15, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will CAR report a clean Q1 2026 earnings print (Adjusted EBITDA at or above consensus with no new charge above $50M)?

Active
33%
Likely No
92% agreement
May 15, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index post a >3% sequential monthly decline in any month from April through July 2026?

Active
45%
Likely No
89% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will CAR's FY2025 DEF 14A proxy filing confirm a BHJH affiliate linkage to former CEO Pahwa OR disclose 2026-2029 LTIP PSU metrics anchored to FY2025 depressed baseline?

Active
66%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will any 2026 Avis Budget Rental Car Funding ABS new-issue tranche price more than 150bp wider than the comparable 2025 tranche?

Active
26%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will CAR's Americas segment Revenue Per Day (RPD) decline 5% or more YoY in BOTH Q1 2026 AND Q2 2026?

Active
25%
Likely No
93% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will CAR file an 8-K disclosing a covenant waiver or material amendment to its corporate credit facilities or vehicle ABS facilities by December 31, 2026?

Active
14%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will CAR report unrestricted corporate cash below $800M at any quarter-end through Q3 2026?

Active
42%
Likely No
92% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Pentwater Capital file a Schedule 13D (rather than 13G) on its CAR position by July 31, 2026?

Resolved
25%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.063
Apr 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

May 15, 2026
Will CAR report a clean Q1 2026 earnings print (Adjusted EBITDA at or above consensus with no new charge above $50M)?
Prediction: 33%
Jul 31, 2026
Will CAR's FY2025 DEF 14A proxy filing confirm a BHJH affiliate linkage to former CEO Pahwa OR disclose 2026-2029 LTIP PSU metrics anchored to FY2025 depressed baseline?
Prediction: 66%
Jul 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Pentwater Capital file a Schedule 13D (rather than 13G) on its CAR position by July 31, 2026?
NOBrier: 0.06
Aug 15, 2026
Will the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index post a >3% sequential monthly decline in any month from April through July 2026?
Prediction: 45%
Aug 15, 2026
Will CAR's Americas segment Revenue Per Day (RPD) decline 5% or more YoY in BOTH Q1 2026 AND Q2 2026?
Prediction: 25%
Nov 15, 2026
Will CAR report unrestricted corporate cash below $800M at any quarter-end through Q3 2026?
Prediction: 42%
Jan 15, 2027
Will CAR file an 8-K disclosing a covenant waiver or material amendment to its corporate credit facilities or vehicle ABS facilities by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 14%
Jan 31, 2027
Will any 2026 Avis Budget Rental Car Funding ABS new-issue tranche price more than 150bp wider than the comparable 2025 tranche?
Prediction: 26%