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CVNA Forecast Markets

Carvana Co.

8
Active Markets
2
Resolved
54%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Feb 18, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

10 markets

Will the SEC investigation of Carvana show public escalation by December 31, 2026?

Active
35%
Likely No
84% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 1.00

Will Carvana's repo financing collateral cushion on beneficial interests remain above 15% as of Q1 2026?

Active
89%
Likely Yes
86%89%after Q4 2025 earnings + 8-lens analysis update
98% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will CRVNA ABS Class D/E bond spreads widen by more than 100bps versus prime auto ABS benchmarks by June 30, 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
16%12%after Q4 2025 earnings + 8-lens analysis update
96% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will a trial date be set or summary judgment motion be decided in the Carvana securities class action by September 30, 2026?

Active
65%
Likely Yes
58%65%after Q4 2025 earnings + 8-lens analysis update
67% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Carvana's H1 2026 operating cash flow exceed 80% of H1 2026 GAAP net income?

Active
71%
Likely Yes
87% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Carvana's net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio remain at or below 2.0x as of Q1 2026?

Active
92%
Likely Yes
86%92%after Q4 2025 earnings + 8-lens analysis update
97% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Garcia family members file Form 4 sales exceeding their 10b5-1 schedule pace by more than 50% in any quarter through Q2 2026?

Active
22%
Likely No
28%22%after Q4 2025 earnings + 8-lens analysis update
86% agreement
Jul 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Carvana's Q1 2026 retail unit sales grow at least 25% year-over-year?

Active
80%
Likely Yes
84% agreement
May 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Carvana's Q4 2025 'Other' gross profit per unit remain above $420?

Resolved
52%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.230
Feb 18, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will Carvana's trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow to net income conversion ratio fall below 50% as of Q4 2025?

Resolved
18%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.032
Feb 18, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

Mar 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Carvana's Q4 2025 'Other' gross profit per unit remain above $420?
YESBrier: 0.23
Mar 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Carvana's trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow to net income conversion ratio fall below 50% as of Q4 2025?
NOBrier: 0.03
May 31, 2026
Will Carvana's Q1 2026 retail unit sales grow at least 25% year-over-year?
Prediction: 80%
Jun 15, 2026
Will Carvana's repo financing collateral cushion on beneficial interests remain above 15% as of Q1 2026?
Prediction: 89%
Jun 15, 2026
Will Carvana's net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio remain at or below 2.0x as of Q1 2026?
Prediction: 92%
Jul 15, 2026
Will CRVNA ABS Class D/E bond spreads widen by more than 100bps versus prime auto ABS benchmarks by June 30, 2026?
Prediction: 12%
Jul 31, 2026
Will Garcia family members file Form 4 sales exceeding their 10b5-1 schedule pace by more than 50% in any quarter through Q2 2026?
Prediction: 22%
Aug 31, 2026
Will Carvana's H1 2026 operating cash flow exceed 80% of H1 2026 GAAP net income?
Prediction: 71%
Oct 15, 2026
Will a trial date be set or summary judgment motion be decided in the Carvana securities class action by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 65%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the SEC investigation of Carvana show public escalation by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 35%