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FDX Forecast Markets

FedEx Corporation

7
Active Markets
2
Resolved
49%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 19, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

9 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

9 markets

Will FedEx Freight's disclosed standalone EBITDA at the April 8 Investor Day exceed $1.5B annualized?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Apr 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will post-spin FedEx Corp (RemainCo) report annualized adjusted EPS on pace to exceed $14.00 in its first two reported quarters as a standalone entity?

Active
65%
Likely Yes
91% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will the FedEx Freight spin-off be completed by June 30, 2026?

Active
90%
Likely Yes
96% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will FedEx's effective GRI capture rate fall below 5% for any quarter in CY2026?

Active
39%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will FedEx report Network 2.0 facility conversions exceeding 600 total by FY2027 (May 2027)?

Active
47%
Likely No
88% agreement
Jul 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Amazon announce or launch a dedicated B2B enterprise logistics service targeting large shippers by December 31, 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will US trade policy actions impair FedEx international express revenue beyond the China-US bilateral lane by December 31, 2026?

Active
35%
Likely No
93% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will FedEx Express/Ground (FEC) report Q3 FY2026 adjusted operating margin above 9.0%?

Resolved
58%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.336
Mar 19, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will FedEx Freight report operating margins below 14% for any quarter in H2 FY2026 (Q3 or Q4)?

Resolved
40%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.360
Mar 19, 2026
IG: 0.60

Resolution Timeline

Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will FedEx Express/Ground (FEC) report Q3 FY2026 adjusted operating margin above 9.0%?
NOBrier: 0.34
Apr 30, 2026
Will FedEx Freight's disclosed standalone EBITDA at the April 8 Investor Day exceed $1.5B annualized?
Prediction: 52%
Jul 15, 2026
Will the FedEx Freight spin-off be completed by June 30, 2026?
Prediction: 90%
Jul 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will FedEx Freight report operating margins below 14% for any quarter in H2 FY2026 (Q3 or Q4)?
YESBrier: 0.36
Jan 31, 2027
Will post-spin FedEx Corp (RemainCo) report annualized adjusted EPS on pace to exceed $14.00 in its first two reported quarters as a standalone entity?
Prediction: 65%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Amazon announce or launch a dedicated B2B enterprise logistics service targeting large shippers by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 12%
Feb 28, 2027
Will FedEx's effective GRI capture rate fall below 5% for any quarter in CY2026?
Prediction: 39%
Feb 28, 2027
Will US trade policy actions impair FedEx international express revenue beyond the China-US bilateral lane by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 35%
Jul 15, 2027
Will FedEx report Network 2.0 facility conversions exceeding 600 total by FY2027 (May 2027)?
Prediction: 47%