RuncheyResearch

Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

Back to Forecasting

FDX Forecast Markets

FedEx Corporation

7
Active Markets
2
Resolved
49%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 19, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

9 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

9 markets

Will FedEx Freight's disclosed standalone EBITDA at the April 8 Investor Day exceed $1.5B annualized?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Apr 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will post-spin FedEx Corp (RemainCo) report annualized adjusted EPS on pace to exceed $14.00 in its first two reported quarters as a standalone entity?

Active
65%
Likely Yes
91% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will the FedEx Freight spin-off be completed by June 30, 2026?

Active
90%
Likely Yes
96% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will FedEx's effective GRI capture rate fall below 5% for any quarter in CY2026?

Active
39%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will FedEx report Network 2.0 facility conversions exceeding 600 total by FY2027 (May 2027)?

Active
47%
Likely No
88% agreement
Jul 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Amazon announce or launch a dedicated B2B enterprise logistics service targeting large shippers by December 31, 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
96% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will US trade policy actions impair FedEx international express revenue beyond the China-US bilateral lane by December 31, 2026?

Active
35%
Likely No
93% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will FedEx Express/Ground (FEC) report Q3 FY2026 adjusted operating margin above 9.0%?

Resolved
58%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.336
Mar 19, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will FedEx Freight report operating margins below 14% for any quarter in H2 FY2026 (Q3 or Q4)?

Resolved
40%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.360
Mar 19, 2026
IG: 0.60

Resolution Timeline

Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will FedEx Express/Ground (FEC) report Q3 FY2026 adjusted operating margin above 9.0%?
NOBrier: 0.34
Apr 30, 2026
Will FedEx Freight's disclosed standalone EBITDA at the April 8 Investor Day exceed $1.5B annualized?
Prediction: 52%
Jul 15, 2026
Will the FedEx Freight spin-off be completed by June 30, 2026?
Prediction: 90%
Jul 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will FedEx Freight report operating margins below 14% for any quarter in H2 FY2026 (Q3 or Q4)?
YESBrier: 0.36
Jan 31, 2027
Will post-spin FedEx Corp (RemainCo) report annualized adjusted EPS on pace to exceed $14.00 in its first two reported quarters as a standalone entity?
Prediction: 65%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Amazon announce or launch a dedicated B2B enterprise logistics service targeting large shippers by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 12%
Feb 28, 2027
Will FedEx's effective GRI capture rate fall below 5% for any quarter in CY2026?
Prediction: 39%
Feb 28, 2027
Will US trade policy actions impair FedEx international express revenue beyond the China-US bilateral lane by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 35%
Jul 15, 2027
Will FedEx report Network 2.0 facility conversions exceeding 600 total by FY2027 (May 2027)?
Prediction: 47%