RuncheyResearch

Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

Back to Forecasting

FRMI Forecast Markets

Fermi Inc.

8
Active Markets
3
Resolved
34%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 20, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

11 markets

Will the NRC issue a Request for Additional Information (RAI) or supplemental information request on FRMI's COLA application by December 31, 2026?

Active
80%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will FRMI raise additional equity capital through common stock, preferred stock, or convertible offerings by December 31, 2026?

Active
47%
Likely No
90% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.79

Will FRMI announce a definitive lease agreement with a hyperscale data center tenant by December 31, 2026?

Active
19%
Likely No
93% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will FRMI record an impairment or write-down on construction in progress in any SEC filing by December 31, 2026?

Active
15%
Likely No
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.63

Will FRMI insiders sell shares exceeding 10% of outstanding shares by September 30, 2026?

Active
37%
Likely No
92% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.63

Will FRMI report any revenue from operations by December 31, 2026?

Active
6%
Likely No
98% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.63

Will FRMI's outstanding share count exceed 750 million by December 31, 2026?

Active
42%
Likely No
93% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will FRMI's REIT qualification be formally challenged or questioned by a regulatory body by June 30, 2027?

Active
7%
Likely No
97% agreement
Jul 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will FRMI close its $500M MUFG credit facility by September 30, 2026?

Resolved
57%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.185
Mar 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will FRMI record an impairment charge on construction in progress by its first 10-K filing?

Resolved
12%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.014
Mar 30, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will FRMI publicly disclose its specific nuclear reactor design by December 31, 2026?

Resolved
52%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.230
Mar 30, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Jun 30, 2026RESOLVED
Will FRMI record an impairment charge on construction in progress by its first 10-K filing?
NOBrier: 0.01
Oct 31, 2026
Will FRMI insiders sell shares exceeding 10% of outstanding shares by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 37%
Oct 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will FRMI close its $500M MUFG credit facility by September 30, 2026?
YESBrier: 0.18
Jan 31, 2027
Will the NRC issue a Request for Additional Information (RAI) or supplemental information request on FRMI's COLA application by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 80%
Jan 31, 2027
Will FRMI raise additional equity capital through common stock, preferred stock, or convertible offerings by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 47%
Jan 31, 2027
Will FRMI announce a definitive lease agreement with a hyperscale data center tenant by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 19%
Jan 31, 2027RESOLVED
Will FRMI publicly disclose its specific nuclear reactor design by December 31, 2026?
YESBrier: 0.23
Feb 28, 2027
Will FRMI record an impairment or write-down on construction in progress in any SEC filing by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 15%
Mar 31, 2027
Will FRMI report any revenue from operations by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 6%
Mar 31, 2027
Will FRMI's outstanding share count exceed 750 million by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 42%
Jul 31, 2027
Will FRMI's REIT qualification be formally challenged or questioned by a regulatory body by June 30, 2027?
Prediction: 7%