Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
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GEO Forecast Markets
GEO Group Inc
7
Active Markets
55%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will ICE have at least one operational warehouse detention facility by year-end 2026?
38%
Likely No
92% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of GEO Group in Menocal (docket 24-758) by June 2027?
51%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Jun 30, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will ISAP electronic monitoring participant count exceed 400,000 by year-end 2026?
62%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will GEO Group activate at least 2 additional idle facilities by year-end 2026?
40%
Likely No
94% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will GEO Group report FY2026 revenue at or above $2.9 billion?
77%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will GEO Group report FY2026 adjusted EBITDA at or above $490 million?
65%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will GEO Group achieve net leverage below 3.0x by year-end 2026?
52%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Dec 31, 2026
Will ICE have at least one operational warehouse detention facility by year-end 2026?Prediction: 38%
Dec 31, 2026
Will GEO Group activate at least 2 additional idle facilities by year-end 2026?Prediction: 40%
Feb 28, 2027
Will ISAP electronic monitoring participant count exceed 400,000 by year-end 2026?Prediction: 62%
Jun 30, 2027
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of GEO Group in Menocal (docket 24-758) by June 2027?Prediction: 51%