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GPC Forecast Markets

Genuine Parts Company

8
Active Markets
2
Resolved
57%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Apr 28, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

5 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

10 markets

Will GPC's disclosed separation dis-synergy costs exceed $100M annually?

Active
72%
Likely Yes
50%72%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-21) — management refined combined dis-synergy + stand-alone cost range to $100-150M run-rate
95% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will GPC draw on the Term Loan A facility (initial or delayed draw) before the end of Q3 2026?

Active
68%
Likely Yes
95% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.79

Will GPC report material one-time charges in 2026 beyond the disclosed $225-250M transformation costs?

Active
41%
Likely No
55%41%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-21) — $75M pretax charges inside disclosed $225-250M transformation framework; no new kitchen-sink items
96% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will at least one major credit agency publish formal commentary on GPC's separation balance-sheet plan or incremental leverage capacity in 2026?

Active
84%
Likely Yes
95% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.63

Will GPC's NAPA US Automotive comparable sales be positive in Q3 2026?

Active
62%
Likely Yes
95% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.62

Will GPC's FY2026 free cash flow fall below $700M?

Active
58%
Likely Yes
53%58%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-21) — Q1 CFO $64M vs $142M dividends; reaffirmed guidance CFO $1.0-1.2B / CapEx $450-500M
97% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will GPC's European automotive aftermarket show positive comparable sales growth by Q2 2026?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
30%52%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-21) — International Automotive segment comp 'slightly positive'; Europe -0.5% with Germany/Iberia accelerating; Asia Pac +4%
96% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will any major credit agency issue a negative outlook or downgrade for GPC by end of 2026?

Active
29%
Likely No
32%29%after Q1 2026 earnings (2026-04-21) — revenue durability upgraded, dis-synergy range validated, IG commitment reaffirmed
97% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will GPC's independent owner purchases remain flat or negative through H1 2026?

Resolved
68%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.462
Apr 21, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI remain above 50 for 3+ consecutive months in H1 2026?

Resolved
40%
Likely No
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.360
Apr 21, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Jul 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI remain above 50 for 3+ consecutive months in H1 2026?
YESBrier: 0.36
Aug 15, 2026
Will GPC's European automotive aftermarket show positive comparable sales growth by Q2 2026?
Prediction: 52%
Aug 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will GPC's independent owner purchases remain flat or negative through H1 2026?
NOBrier: 0.46
Nov 15, 2026
Will GPC draw on the Term Loan A facility (initial or delayed draw) before the end of Q3 2026?
Prediction: 68%
Nov 15, 2026
Will GPC's NAPA US Automotive comparable sales be positive in Q3 2026?
Prediction: 62%
Dec 31, 2026
Will GPC's disclosed separation dis-synergy costs exceed $100M annually?
Prediction: 72%
Dec 31, 2026
Will at least one major credit agency publish formal commentary on GPC's separation balance-sheet plan or incremental leverage capacity in 2026?
Prediction: 84%
Dec 31, 2026
Will any major credit agency issue a negative outlook or downgrade for GPC by end of 2026?
Prediction: 29%
Feb 28, 2027
Will GPC report material one-time charges in 2026 beyond the disclosed $225-250M transformation costs?
Prediction: 41%
Feb 28, 2027
Will GPC's FY2026 free cash flow fall below $700M?
Prediction: 58%