Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive
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LAC Forecast Markets
Lithium Americas Corp.
7
Active Markets
35%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will lithium carbonate spot price average below $10,000/tonne for Q3 and Q4 2026?
35%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will LAC announce a major Thacker Pass Phase 1 construction milestone by December 31, 2026?
30%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will GM announce a reduction in EV production targets or lithium battery demand by December 31, 2026?
25%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will LAC's DOE ATVM Loan require a sixth amendment by September 30, 2026?
70%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will US critical minerals policy materially change in a way that negatively affects LAC by December 31, 2026?
17%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will LAC record an impairment charge on Thacker Pass assets in its next two quarterly filings?
18%
Likely No
94% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will LAC's shares outstanding exceed 400 million by December 31, 2026?
52%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Sep 15, 2026
Will LAC record an impairment charge on Thacker Pass assets in its next two quarterly filings?Prediction: 18%
Oct 15, 2026
Will LAC's DOE ATVM Loan require a sixth amendment by September 30, 2026?Prediction: 70%
Jan 15, 2027
Will LAC announce a major Thacker Pass Phase 1 construction milestone by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 30%
Jan 15, 2027
Will GM announce a reduction in EV production targets or lithium battery demand by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 25%
Jan 31, 2027
Will lithium carbonate spot price average below $10,000/tonne for Q3 and Q4 2026?Prediction: 35%