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LGIH Forecast Markets
LGI Homes, Inc.
7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
25%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will LGIH report a quarterly cancellation rate above 50% in any quarter of FY2026?
50%
Likely No
91% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will LGIH face a CFPB enforcement action, state AG action, or FHA administrative sanction by December 31, 2026?
25%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will LGIH close more than 5,400 homes in FY2026?
24%
Likely No
95% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will LGIH report adjusted gross margin below 18% in any quarter of H1 2026 (Q1 or Q2)?
8%
Likely No
96% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will LGIH record cumulative inventory impairments exceeding $50M in FY2026?
19%
Likely No
95% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average below 6.0% for any full calendar month by December 2026?
30%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will LGIH disclose a debt covenant breach, waiver, or amendment to credit facility terms by December 31, 2026?
35%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will LGIH report a cancellation rate below 30% in both Q1 and Q2 2026?
10%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.010Apr 29, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Aug 15, 2026
Will LGIH report adjusted gross margin below 18% in any quarter of H1 2026 (Q1 or Q2)?Prediction: 8%
Aug 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will LGIH report a cancellation rate below 30% in both Q1 and Q2 2026? NOBrier: 0.01
Jan 15, 2027
Will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average below 6.0% for any full calendar month by December 2026?Prediction: 30%
Mar 15, 2027
Will LGIH report a quarterly cancellation rate above 50% in any quarter of FY2026?Prediction: 50%
Mar 15, 2027
Will LGIH record cumulative inventory impairments exceeding $50M in FY2026?Prediction: 19%