RuncheyResearch

Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

Back to Forecasting

LGIH Forecast Markets

LGI Homes, Inc.

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
25%
Avg Probability
Price at Value
Apr 28, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests price is consistent with fundamentals.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will LGIH report a quarterly cancellation rate above 50% in any quarter of FY2026?

Active
50%
Likely No
91% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will LGIH face a CFPB enforcement action, state AG action, or FHA administrative sanction by December 31, 2026?

Active
25%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will LGIH close more than 5,400 homes in FY2026?

Active
24%
Likely No
95% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will LGIH report adjusted gross margin below 18% in any quarter of H1 2026 (Q1 or Q2)?

Active
8%
Likely No
96% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will LGIH record cumulative inventory impairments exceeding $50M in FY2026?

Active
19%
Likely No
95% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average below 6.0% for any full calendar month by December 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will LGIH disclose a debt covenant breach, waiver, or amendment to credit facility terms by December 31, 2026?

Active
35%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will LGIH report a cancellation rate below 30% in both Q1 and Q2 2026?

Resolved
10%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.010
Apr 29, 2026
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Aug 15, 2026
Will LGIH report adjusted gross margin below 18% in any quarter of H1 2026 (Q1 or Q2)?
Prediction: 8%
Aug 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will LGIH report a cancellation rate below 30% in both Q1 and Q2 2026?
NOBrier: 0.01
Jan 15, 2027
Will LGIH face a CFPB enforcement action, state AG action, or FHA administrative sanction by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 25%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate average below 6.0% for any full calendar month by December 2026?
Prediction: 30%
Jan 31, 2027
Will LGIH disclose a debt covenant breach, waiver, or amendment to credit facility terms by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 35%
Mar 15, 2027
Will LGIH report a quarterly cancellation rate above 50% in any quarter of FY2026?
Prediction: 50%
Mar 15, 2027
Will LGIH close more than 5,400 homes in FY2026?
Prediction: 24%
Mar 15, 2027
Will LGIH record cumulative inventory impairments exceeding $50M in FY2026?
Prediction: 19%