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LLY Forecast Markets
Eli Lilly and Company
8
Active Markets
58%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will the FDA approve orforglipron (Lilly's oral GLP-1) by June 30, 2026?
84%
Likely Yes
95% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will the court deny Lilly's summary judgment motion in MDL 3094 (tirzepatide litigation), allowing claims to proceed to trial?
67%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Lilly maintain above 55% U.S. incretin prescription share through H1 2026?
80%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Lilly report that Medicare/government channel tirzepatide volume growth exceeds the pricing discount impact in Q2 2026?
48%
Likely No
93% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Lilly report positive pivotal Phase 3 results for retatrutide (triple agonist) by December 31, 2026?
67%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Novo Nordisk's CagriSema demonstrate superior weight loss to tirzepatide in head-to-head or cross-trial comparison by December 31, 2026?
14%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will any top-3 PBM (CVS Caremark, Express Scripts, OptumRx) exclude tirzepatide from preferred formulary status for 2027?
24%
Likely No
91% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Lilly's FY 2026 gross margin remain above 80%?
78%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.36
Resolution Timeline
Aug 15, 2026
Will Lilly maintain above 55% U.S. incretin prescription share through H1 2026?Prediction: 80%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Lilly report positive pivotal Phase 3 results for retatrutide (triple agonist) by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 67%