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LYB Forecast Markets
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
6
Active Markets
1
Resolved
44%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will LYB report Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $850M or more?
40%
Likely No
87% agreement
May 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will China's NDRC issue a formal anti-involution policy targeting petrochemical capacity rationalization by 2026-12-31?
43%
Likely No
89% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will cumulative announced global ethylene capacity rationalization reach 10 million tonnes by 2026-12-31?
70%
Likely Yes
89% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will LYB disclose European divestiture proceeds of $500M or more when the transaction closes in Q2 2026?
55%
Likely Yes
89% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will LYB disclose a Saudi Arabia feedstock JV capex commitment exceeding $500M for 2026 by year-end?
13%
Likely No
92% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will either Moody's or S&P downgrade LYB's senior unsecured rating by year-end 2026?
27%
Likely No
90% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will LyondellBasell cut its quarterly dividend by 40% or more at the February 2026 Board decision?
60%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.160Apr 24, 2026
IG: 0.80
Resolution Timeline
Mar 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will LyondellBasell cut its quarterly dividend by 40% or more at the February 2026 Board decision? YESBrier: 0.16
Aug 15, 2026
Will LYB disclose European divestiture proceeds of $500M or more when the transaction closes in Q2 2026?Prediction: 55%
Dec 31, 2026
Will cumulative announced global ethylene capacity rationalization reach 10 million tonnes by 2026-12-31?Prediction: 70%
Dec 31, 2026
Will LYB disclose a Saudi Arabia feedstock JV capex commitment exceeding $500M for 2026 by year-end?Prediction: 13%
Dec 31, 2026
Will either Moody's or S&P downgrade LYB's senior unsecured rating by year-end 2026?Prediction: 27%