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MP Forecast Markets

MP Materials Corp.

5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
49%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 23, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will NdPr oxide spot price exceed $75/kg by Q4 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will China impose new rare earth export restrictions by end of 2026?

Active
50%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will MP announce a new major OEM or defense magnetics customer by end of 2026?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will MP receive at least $75M in combined 45X/48C tax credits during 2025?

Active
56%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Apr 30, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will MP's market cap decline below $6B at any point before end of 2026?

Active
37%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will MP's Materials segment achieve positive EBITDA in any quarter of FY2025?

Resolved
55%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.203
Apr 3, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will MP's Magnetics segment generate revenue in H1 2025?

Resolved
63%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.137
Apr 3, 2026
IG: 0.60

Resolution Timeline

Aug 15, 2025RESOLVED
Will MP's Magnetics segment generate revenue in H1 2025?
YESBrier: 0.14
Mar 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will MP's Materials segment achieve positive EBITDA in any quarter of FY2025?
YESBrier: 0.20
Apr 30, 2026
Will MP receive at least $75M in combined 45X/48C tax credits during 2025?
Prediction: 56%
Jan 15, 2027
Will NdPr oxide spot price exceed $75/kg by Q4 2026?
Prediction: 30%
Jan 15, 2027
Will China impose new rare earth export restrictions by end of 2026?
Prediction: 50%
Jan 15, 2027
Will MP announce a new major OEM or defense magnetics customer by end of 2026?
Prediction: 52%
Jan 15, 2027
Will MP's market cap decline below $6B at any point before end of 2026?
Prediction: 37%