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MP Forecast Markets
MP Materials Corp.
5
Active Markets
2
Resolved
49%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will NdPr oxide spot price exceed $75/kg by Q4 2026?
30%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will China impose new rare earth export restrictions by end of 2026?
50%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will MP announce a new major OEM or defense magnetics customer by end of 2026?
52%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will MP receive at least $75M in combined 45X/48C tax credits during 2025?
56%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Apr 30, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will MP's market cap decline below $6B at any point before end of 2026?
37%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will MP's Materials segment achieve positive EBITDA in any quarter of FY2025?
55%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.203Apr 3, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will MP's Magnetics segment generate revenue in H1 2025?
63%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.137Apr 3, 2026
IG: 0.60
Resolution Timeline
Mar 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will MP's Materials segment achieve positive EBITDA in any quarter of FY2025? YESBrier: 0.20
Apr 30, 2026
Will MP receive at least $75M in combined 45X/48C tax credits during 2025?Prediction: 56%
Jan 15, 2027
Will MP announce a new major OEM or defense magnetics customer by end of 2026?Prediction: 52%