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MRNA Forecast Markets
Moderna, Inc.
6
Active Markets
1
Resolved
33%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will the CDC/ACIP reclassify COVID vaccination from universal to risk-based recommendation by December 31, 2027?
22%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2028
IG: 0.80
Will Moderna receive a clear regulatory path forward for mRNA-1010 (flu vaccine) from the FDA Type A meeting by September 30, 2026?
28%
Likely No
93% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Moderna report positive Phase 3 results for intismeran (mRNA-4157) in adjuvant melanoma by December 31, 2026?
37%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Moderna lose the Arbutus patent trial and be ordered to pay royalties of 5% or higher on LNP-based products?
25%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jun 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will the FDA issue a Refuse-to-File on any additional Moderna application (beyond mRNA-1010) by December 31, 2026?
16%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will Moderna receive regulatory approval for mRNA-1010 (flu vaccine) in the EU, Canada, or Australia by December 31, 2026?
74%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Moderna report Q4 2025 year-end cash below $7.0B or issue 2026 revenue guidance below $1.5B?
32%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.102Feb 13, 2026
IG: 0.60
Resolution Timeline
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Moderna report Q4 2025 year-end cash below $7.0B or issue 2026 revenue guidance below $1.5B? NOBrier: 0.10