Will Moderna report Q4 2025 year-end cash below $7.0B or issue 2026 revenue guidance below $1.5B?

Cash at Q3 was $6.6B. The $600M Ares draw (confirmed in Jan 2026 shareholder letter) brings available cash to ~$7.2B before Q4 operations. Q4 net burn depends on seasonal revenue ($300-500M expected given heavy Q3 concentration) minus quarterly costs. With cost execution $900M ahead of plan, management likely engineered a year-end landing in the $7.0-7.5B range. The resolution excludes only UNDRAWN Ares -- the drawn $600M counts as cash. Revenue guidance below $1.5B is very unlikely given management's public 'up to 10% growth' commitment on a $1.6-2.0B base, yielding $1.76-2.2B midpoint. The OR condition adds incremental probability, but both legs appear manageable. Cash is the closer call at ~30% risk; revenue guidance at <5% risk.

The Ares draw timing is the critical variable. The $600M drawn as of the Jan 2026 shareholder letter likely occurred before year-end to bolster the balance sheet -- this is standard treasury management for a company guiding $6.5-7.0B. If drawn before Dec 31, starting cash is ~$7.2B, and Q4 operations (revenue minus costs) are likely neutral to slightly positive given cost outperformance. Management's $6.5-7.0B guidance may have been set BEFORE the Ares draw decision, making the actual outcome likely above guidance range. Revenue guidance below $1.5B requires extreme pessimism that contradicts management's public 10% growth target. Even with the flu RTF blocking a key growth driver, mRESVIA ramp and international COVID contracts provide a floor well above $1.5B.

Systematic cash analysis: Q3 cash $6.6B + $600M Ares draw = $7.2B. Average quarterly net burn (Q1-Q3): ($9.5B - $6.6B) / 3 = ~$967M/quarter including revenue. But Q4 typically has lower costs due to seasonal patterns and workforce reduction effects. Estimated Q4 net position: revenue $300-500M minus costs $600-800M = net burn $100-500M. Year-end range: $6.7-7.1B. This range straddles the $7.0B threshold, making it genuinely uncertain. Revenue guidance leg: management committed to 'up to 10% growth' but flu RTF removes a key driver. Even conservatively, guidance midpoint likely $1.7-1.8B. Combined OR probability weighted toward cash risk (~33%) with small revenue guidance tail (~3%).

Cash is the real risk here. Management guided $6.5-7.0B year-end cash, with the low end already below the $7.0B threshold. The $600M Ares draw is the swing factor -- if completed before year-end, it pushes cash above $7.0B. Cost execution has been excellent ($900M ahead of plan), providing buffer. Revenue guidance below $1.5B is a non-starter given management's 10% growth commitment. The OR condition is dominated by the cash leg. I estimate ~30% chance cash lands below $7.0B (the low end of guidance) and ~3% chance revenue guidance midpoint is below $1.5B, yielding ~33% combined.

Moderna drew from Ares specifically to bolster the balance sheet -- this is a company actively managing its cash position. The $600M draw plus $900M cost outperformance makes landing above $7.0B the base case. Management guided $6.5-7.0B but has consistently beaten cost targets. The deliberate Ares draw signals intent to report strong cash position at year-end. Revenue guidance below $1.5B contradicts every public statement from management, including the Jan 2026 shareholder letter targeting 10% growth. Even with the flu RTF headwind, mRESVIA and international COVID provide a revenue floor. Both legs of the OR condition are more likely to resolve NO than YES.

The resolution criteria specifies cash 'excluding the undrawn Ares facility' -- meaning drawn amounts count but undrawn does not. The $600M drawn by Jan 2026 counts. But timing ambiguity is the biggest uncertainty: the Jan 2026 shareholder letter confirms $600M drawn but doesn't specify whether the draw was pre or post year-end. If pre-year-end (60% likely), cash is ~$7.2B + Q4 operations = likely above $7.0B. If post-year-end (40% likely), cash is $6.6B + Q4 operations, and Q4 net operations may not add enough to clear $7.0B given modest Q4 revenue. Revenue guidance: <5% below $1.5B. Combined: ~38% accounting for Ares timing uncertainty.

Q3 cash $6.6B plus $600M Ares draw pushes toward $7.2B. Cost execution $900M ahead of plan. Likely above $7.0B at year-end. Revenue guidance almost certainly above $1.5B given management's 10% growth target. OR condition driven by cash proximity to threshold, ~30%.

Management guided $6.5-7.0B but has beaten cost targets by $900M. The Ares draw provides additional buffer. More likely to hit the high end of cash guidance ($7.0B+). Revenue guidance below $1.5B is extremely unlikely. Combined probability ~27%.

Cash is close to $7.0B threshold -- management's own guidance includes scenarios below $7.0B ($6.5B low end). Ares draw helps but Q4 revenue may disappoint given declining COVID demand (-30% YoY vaccination rates). Revenue guidance unlikely below $1.5B. OR probability ~35%, mostly from cash risk.