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MU Forecast Markets

Micron Technology, Inc.

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
37%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 18, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: HIGH
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will HBM represent more than 30% of Micron's FY2026 total revenue?

Active
21%
Likely No
34%21%after Q2 FY2026 earnings update
93% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Samsung achieve HBM4 qualification with NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?

Active
25%
Likely No
33%25%after Q2 FY2026 earnings update
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will any top-3 cloud hyperscaler (AWS, Azure, GCP) reduce AI infrastructure CapEx guidance by more than 15% by Q4 CY2026?

Active
9%
Likely No
12%9%after Q2 FY2026 earnings update
95% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will NVIDIA qualify a second LPDRAM supplier for its data center platforms by December 31, 2026?

Active
15%
Likely No
22%15%after Q2 FY2026 earnings update
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Micron's average gross margin for FQ3-FQ4 FY2026 remain above 45%?

Active
96%
Likely Yes
74%96%after Q2 FY2026 earnings update
97% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Micron report any CHIPS Act milestone delay, deferral request, or clawback proceeding by FY2027 (August 2027)?

Active
20%
Likely No
23%20%after Q2 FY2026 earnings update
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will DRAM spot prices decline more than 15% from their CY2026 peak before December 31, 2026?

Active
25%
Likely No
30%25%after Q2 FY2026 earnings update
93% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Micron's FQ2 FY2026 revenue exceed $18.0B?

Resolved
84%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.026
Mar 18, 2026
IG: 0.80

Resolution Timeline

Apr 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Micron's FQ2 FY2026 revenue exceed $18.0B?
YESBrier: 0.03
Oct 15, 2026
Will HBM represent more than 30% of Micron's FY2026 total revenue?
Prediction: 21%
Oct 15, 2026
Will Micron's average gross margin for FQ3-FQ4 FY2026 remain above 45%?
Prediction: 96%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Samsung achieve HBM4 qualification with NVIDIA by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 25%
Jan 31, 2027
Will NVIDIA qualify a second LPDRAM supplier for its data center platforms by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 15%
Jan 31, 2027
Will DRAM spot prices decline more than 15% from their CY2026 peak before December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 25%
Feb 28, 2027
Will any top-3 cloud hyperscaler (AWS, Azure, GCP) reduce AI infrastructure CapEx guidance by more than 15% by Q4 CY2026?
Prediction: 9%
Sep 15, 2027
Will Micron report any CHIPS Act milestone delay, deferral request, or clawback proceeding by FY2027 (August 2027)?
Prediction: 20%