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NVO Forecast Markets

Novo Nordisk A/S

7
Active Markets
1
Resolved
41%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Feb 12, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will Novo Nordisk report Q1 2026 adjusted sales decline greater than 10% YoY at constant exchange rates?

Active
32%
Likely No
79% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will more than 60% of oral Wegovy prescriptions through Q2 2026 go to patients without a prior injectable GLP-1 prescription in the preceding 12 months?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
60% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will the FDA approve Eli Lilly's orforglipron (oral GLP-1) by September 30, 2026?

Active
66%
Likely Yes
81% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will oral Wegovy (semaglutide pill for obesity) reach 100,000 weekly US prescriptions by September 30, 2026?

Active
44%
Likely No
76% agreement
Oct 31, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Novo Nordisk's actual US net price reductions under the MFN agreement exceed the company's guided assumptions by more than 2 percentage points by December 31, 2026?

Active
28%
Likely No
83% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will the FDA take enforcement action against at least 3 major compounding pharmacies selling semaglutide products by December 31, 2026?

Active
34%
Likely No
84% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will a US federal court grant class certification in any Ozempic/Wegovy product liability lawsuit by December 31, 2026?

Active
7%
Likely No
92% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will CagriSema demonstrate >=20% body weight loss in the REDEFINE 4 trial results reported by June 30, 2026?

Resolved
62%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.384
Feb 23, 2026
IG: 0.80

Resolution Timeline

Jun 15, 2026
Will Novo Nordisk report Q1 2026 adjusted sales decline greater than 10% YoY at constant exchange rates?
Prediction: 32%
Jul 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will CagriSema demonstrate >=20% body weight loss in the REDEFINE 4 trial results reported by June 30, 2026?
NOBrier: 0.38
Sep 30, 2026
Will more than 60% of oral Wegovy prescriptions through Q2 2026 go to patients without a prior injectable GLP-1 prescription in the preceding 12 months?
Prediction: 52%
Oct 15, 2026
Will the FDA approve Eli Lilly's orforglipron (oral GLP-1) by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 66%
Oct 31, 2026
Will oral Wegovy (semaglutide pill for obesity) reach 100,000 weekly US prescriptions by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 44%
Jan 31, 2027
Will the FDA take enforcement action against at least 3 major compounding pharmacies selling semaglutide products by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 34%
Jan 31, 2027
Will a US federal court grant class certification in any Ozempic/Wegovy product liability lawsuit by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 7%
Feb 28, 2027
Will Novo Nordisk's actual US net price reductions under the MFN agreement exceed the company's guided assumptions by more than 2 percentage points by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 28%