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OSCR Forecast Markets
Oscar Health, Inc.
7
Active Markets
48%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will Oscar Health report Q1 2026 MLR below 84%?
54%
Likely Yes
93% agreement
May 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Oscar Health achieve FY2026 operating income at or above $250M (low end of guidance)?
38%
Likely No
93% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Oscar Health's FY2026 risk adjustment as % of direct premiums remain at or below 21%?
52%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Oscar Health report Q1 2026 paid membership above 2.7 million?
68%
Likely Yes
93% agreement
May 15, 2026
IG: 0.72
Will enhanced ACA premium tax credits be reinstated by Congress before December 31, 2026?
17%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will Oscar Health's bronze plan monthly churn rate remain below 2% through Q2 2026?
47%
Likely No
94% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will Oscar Health maintain a quota share reinsurance ceding ratio of at least 50% for plan year 2027?
63%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Aug 15, 2026
Will Oscar Health's bronze plan monthly churn rate remain below 2% through Q2 2026?Prediction: 47%
Jan 15, 2027
Will enhanced ACA premium tax credits be reinstated by Congress before December 31, 2026?Prediction: 17%
Jan 31, 2027
Will Oscar Health maintain a quota share reinsurance ceding ratio of at least 50% for plan year 2027?Prediction: 63%
Mar 15, 2027
Will Oscar Health achieve FY2026 operating income at or above $250M (low end of guidance)?Prediction: 38%
Mar 15, 2027
Will Oscar Health's FY2026 risk adjustment as % of direct premiums remain at or below 21%?Prediction: 52%