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PD Forecast Markets
PagerDuty, Inc.
8
Active Markets
3
Resolved
39%
Avg Probability
All Markets
11 markets
Will PagerDuty announce a definitive acquisition agreement by September 30, 2026?
38%
Likely No
92% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will PagerDuty's DBNR stabilize above 95% through H1 FY2027?
72%
Likely Yes
89% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will PagerDuty's customers >$100K ARR decline below 850 by Q2 FY2027?
12%
Likely No
96% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will PagerDuty's FY2027 revenue exceed guidance midpoint ($492.5M)?
55%
Likely Yes
82% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will Microsoft, ServiceNow, or Datadog launch an AI-native incident management product by December 31, 2026?
12%
Likely No
93% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will any PagerDuty insider file a Form 4 reporting an open market purchase by September 30, 2026?
11%
Likely No
95% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will PagerDuty disclose that usage-based or consumption revenue exceeds 10% of total ARR by Q2 FY2027?
19%
Likely No
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will PagerDuty report Q1 FY2027 revenue above $122M?
62%
Likely Yes
86% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will PagerDuty guide FY2027 revenue above $500M (positive growth vs. FY2026)?
40%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.160Mar 20, 2026
IG: 1.00
Will PagerDuty report dollar-based net retention rate below 100% in Q4 FY2026?
72%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.078Mar 20, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will PagerDuty's Q4 FY2026 revenue meet or exceed the midpoint of guidance (~$128M)?
40%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.160Mar 20, 2026
IG: 0.64
Resolution Timeline
Mar 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will PagerDuty guide FY2027 revenue above $500M (positive growth vs. FY2026)? NOBrier: 0.16
Mar 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will PagerDuty report dollar-based net retention rate below 100% in Q4 FY2026? YESBrier: 0.08
Mar 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will PagerDuty's Q4 FY2026 revenue meet or exceed the midpoint of guidance (~$128M)? NOBrier: 0.16
Sep 15, 2026
Will PagerDuty disclose that usage-based or consumption revenue exceeds 10% of total ARR by Q2 FY2027?Prediction: 19%
Sep 30, 2026
Will PagerDuty announce a definitive acquisition agreement by September 30, 2026?Prediction: 38%
Sep 30, 2026
Will any PagerDuty insider file a Form 4 reporting an open market purchase by September 30, 2026?Prediction: 11%
Dec 31, 2026
Will Microsoft, ServiceNow, or Datadog launch an AI-native incident management product by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 12%