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PD Forecast Markets

PagerDuty, Inc.

8
Active Markets
3
Resolved
39%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Mar 12, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

8 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

11 markets

Will PagerDuty announce a definitive acquisition agreement by September 30, 2026?

Active
38%
Likely No
92% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will PagerDuty's DBNR stabilize above 95% through H1 FY2027?

Active
72%
Likely Yes
89% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will PagerDuty's customers >$100K ARR decline below 850 by Q2 FY2027?

Active
12%
Likely No
96% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will PagerDuty's FY2027 revenue exceed guidance midpoint ($492.5M)?

Active
55%
Likely Yes
82% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will Microsoft, ServiceNow, or Datadog launch an AI-native incident management product by December 31, 2026?

Active
12%
Likely No
93% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will any PagerDuty insider file a Form 4 reporting an open market purchase by September 30, 2026?

Active
11%
Likely No
95% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will PagerDuty disclose that usage-based or consumption revenue exceeds 10% of total ARR by Q2 FY2027?

Active
19%
Likely No
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will PagerDuty report Q1 FY2027 revenue above $122M?

Active
62%
Likely Yes
86% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will PagerDuty guide FY2027 revenue above $500M (positive growth vs. FY2026)?

Resolved
40%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.160
Mar 20, 2026
IG: 1.00

Will PagerDuty report dollar-based net retention rate below 100% in Q4 FY2026?

Resolved
72%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.078
Mar 20, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will PagerDuty's Q4 FY2026 revenue meet or exceed the midpoint of guidance (~$128M)?

Resolved
40%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.160
Mar 20, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

Mar 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will PagerDuty guide FY2027 revenue above $500M (positive growth vs. FY2026)?
NOBrier: 0.16
Mar 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will PagerDuty report dollar-based net retention rate below 100% in Q4 FY2026?
YESBrier: 0.08
Mar 18, 2026RESOLVED
Will PagerDuty's Q4 FY2026 revenue meet or exceed the midpoint of guidance (~$128M)?
NOBrier: 0.16
Jun 15, 2026
Will PagerDuty report Q1 FY2027 revenue above $122M?
Prediction: 62%
Sep 15, 2026
Will PagerDuty's DBNR stabilize above 95% through H1 FY2027?
Prediction: 72%
Sep 15, 2026
Will PagerDuty disclose that usage-based or consumption revenue exceeds 10% of total ARR by Q2 FY2027?
Prediction: 19%
Sep 30, 2026
Will PagerDuty announce a definitive acquisition agreement by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 38%
Sep 30, 2026
Will PagerDuty's customers >$100K ARR decline below 850 by Q2 FY2027?
Prediction: 12%
Sep 30, 2026
Will any PagerDuty insider file a Form 4 reporting an open market purchase by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 11%
Dec 31, 2026
Will Microsoft, ServiceNow, or Datadog launch an AI-native incident management product by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 12%
Mar 31, 2027
Will PagerDuty's FY2027 revenue exceed guidance midpoint ($492.5M)?
Prediction: 55%