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RVMD Forecast Markets
Revolution Medicines, Inc.
7
Active Markets
22%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will RASolute 302 report a statistically significant improvement in overall survival by September 2026?
40%
Likely No
94% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 1.00
Will RVMD's FY2026 GAAP operating expenses exceed the high end of $1.7B guidance?
44%
Likely No
38%44%after April 2026 $2.225B upsized dual-tranche capital raise
88% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will the FDA accept an NDA/BLA filing from RVMD for daraxonrasib by December 31, 2026?
25%
Likely No
94% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will a competitor receive FDA approval for a new RAS-targeted therapy in PDAC by December 31, 2026?
7%
Likely No
96% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will RVMD's cash and investments (excluding Royalty Pharma draws) fall below $1.0B by June 30, 2026?
1%
Likely No
10%1%after April 2026 $2.225B upsized dual-tranche capital raise
99% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will RVMD draw more than $500M from the Royalty Pharma facility by December 31, 2026?
8%
Likely No
30%8%after April 2026 $2.225B upsized dual-tranche capital raise
95% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will RVMD report that RASolve 301 (NSCLC Phase III) has completed enrollment by December 31, 2026?
28%
Likely No
92% agreement
Dec 31, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Aug 15, 2026
Will RVMD's cash and investments (excluding Royalty Pharma draws) fall below $1.0B by June 30, 2026?Prediction: 1%
Sep 30, 2026
Will RASolute 302 report a statistically significant improvement in overall survival by September 2026?Prediction: 40%
Dec 31, 2026
Will the FDA accept an NDA/BLA filing from RVMD for daraxonrasib by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 25%
Dec 31, 2026
Will a competitor receive FDA approval for a new RAS-targeted therapy in PDAC by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 7%
Dec 31, 2026
Will RVMD report that RASolve 301 (NSCLC Phase III) has completed enrollment by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 28%
Mar 15, 2027
Will RVMD's FY2026 GAAP operating expenses exceed the high end of $1.7B guidance?Prediction: 44%
Mar 15, 2027
Will RVMD draw more than $500M from the Royalty Pharma facility by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 8%