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SBSW Forecast Markets
Sibanye-Stillwater Limited
7
Active Markets
43%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will the US Commerce Department approve tariffs on Russian palladium imports by December 2026?
25%
Likely No
78% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 1.00
Will the 4E PGM basket price fall below R18,000/4Eoz for two consecutive quarters by end of 2026?
23%
Likely No
82% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Sibanye-Stillwater report H1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at or above R12 billion?
65%
Likely Yes
78% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will South Africa experience extended load-shedding above Stage 4 for more than one consecutive week in 2026?
15%
Likely No
85% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will the average gold price remain above $2,000/oz through H2 2026?
87%
Likely Yes
92% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Sibanye-Stillwater reduce net debt below R10 billion by FY2026 year-end?
58%
Likely Yes
80% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will battery electric vehicle market share in Europe exceed 35% of new car sales in calendar year 2026?
30%
Likely No
82% agreement
Feb 28, 2027
IG: 0.36
Resolution Timeline
Sep 30, 2026
Will Sibanye-Stillwater report H1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA at or above R12 billion?Prediction: 65%
Jan 15, 2027
Will the US Commerce Department approve tariffs on Russian palladium imports by December 2026?Prediction: 25%
Feb 28, 2027
Will battery electric vehicle market share in Europe exceed 35% of new car sales in calendar year 2026?Prediction: 30%
Mar 31, 2027
Will the 4E PGM basket price fall below R18,000/4Eoz for two consecutive quarters by end of 2026?Prediction: 23%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Sibanye-Stillwater reduce net debt below R10 billion by FY2026 year-end?Prediction: 58%