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STLD Forecast Markets
Steel Dynamics
7
Active Markets
50%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will STLD's Aluminum Dynamics mill reach 90% utilization by year-end 2026?
40%
Likely No
36%40%after Q1 2026 earnings — aluminum ramp on schedule but execution ding
88% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will STLD's Aluminum Dynamics segment generate over $300M EBITDA in FY2026?
22%
Likely No
28%22%after Q1 2026 earnings — aluminum unit economics moved backward
86% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will US HRC steel prices average above $750/ton in H2 2026?
80%
Likely Yes
62%80%after Q1 2026 earnings — HRC pricing momentum materially stronger
94% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will STLD generate over $1.5B in free cash flow in FY2026?
48%
Likely No
40%48%after Q1 2026 earnings — EBITDA breakout offsets Q1 WC drag
84% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will Section 232 steel tariffs remain at or above 25% through year-end 2026?
88%
Likely Yes
82%88%after Q1 2026 earnings — trade protection posture strengthened
96% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will STLD announce a definitive agreement to acquire BlueScope or its North American assets by year-end 2026?
5%
Likely No
15%5%after Q1 2026 earnings — BlueScope effectively dead
96% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will STLD achieve steel shipments above 14 million tons in FY2026?
68%
Likely Yes
47%68%after Q1 2026 earnings — record shipments and competitive position strengthened
92% agreement
Feb 15, 2027
IG: 0.36
Resolution Timeline
Jan 15, 2027
Will Section 232 steel tariffs remain at or above 25% through year-end 2026?Prediction: 88%
Feb 15, 2027
Will STLD's Aluminum Dynamics mill reach 90% utilization by year-end 2026?Prediction: 40%
Mar 15, 2027
Will STLD's Aluminum Dynamics segment generate over $300M EBITDA in FY2026?Prediction: 22%