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TGT Forecast Markets

Target Corporation

5
Active Markets
3
Resolved
50%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 17, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

5 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM-HIGH
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

8 markets

Will Target's beauty category report negative comparable sales growth in Q3 FY2026 (first full quarter post-Ulta exit)?

Active
42%
Likely No
94% agreement
Dec 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Target report positive comparable sales growth in Q1 FY2026?

Active
40%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.60

Will new CEO Fiddelke avoid any discretionary share sales through August 2026?

Active
68%
Likely Yes
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Target exclude transformation-related restructuring charges from adjusted EPS in FY2026?

Active
84%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Target's FY2026 adjusted EPS dividend payout ratio exceed 70%?

Active
22%
Likely No
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.36

Will Target report a 5th consecutive negative comparable sales quarter in Q4 FY2025?

Resolved
78%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.048
Mar 17, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Target guide FY2026 adjusted EPS below $8.00 at the March 2026 earnings call?

Resolved
56%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.314
Mar 17, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Target guide FY2026 CapEx below $4.0B at the March 2026 Financial Community Meeting?

Resolved
10%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.010
Mar 17, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Target report a 5th consecutive negative comparable sales quarter in Q4 FY2025?
YESBrier: 0.05
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Target guide FY2026 adjusted EPS below $8.00 at the March 2026 earnings call?
NOBrier: 0.31
Mar 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Target guide FY2026 CapEx below $4.0B at the March 2026 Financial Community Meeting?
NOBrier: 0.01
Jun 15, 2026
Will Target report positive comparable sales growth in Q1 FY2026?
Prediction: 40%
Sep 15, 2026
Will new CEO Fiddelke avoid any discretionary share sales through August 2026?
Prediction: 68%
Dec 15, 2026
Will Target's beauty category report negative comparable sales growth in Q3 FY2026 (first full quarter post-Ulta exit)?
Prediction: 42%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Target exclude transformation-related restructuring charges from adjusted EPS in FY2026?
Prediction: 84%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Target's FY2026 adjusted EPS dividend payout ratio exceed 70%?
Prediction: 22%