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TGT Forecast Markets
Target Corporation
5
Active Markets
3
Resolved
50%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will Target's beauty category report negative comparable sales growth in Q3 FY2026 (first full quarter post-Ulta exit)?
42%
Likely No
94% agreement
Dec 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will Target report positive comparable sales growth in Q1 FY2026?
40%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will new CEO Fiddelke avoid any discretionary share sales through August 2026?
68%
Likely Yes
93% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Target exclude transformation-related restructuring charges from adjusted EPS in FY2026?
84%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Target's FY2026 adjusted EPS dividend payout ratio exceed 70%?
22%
Likely No
94% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.36
Will Target report a 5th consecutive negative comparable sales quarter in Q4 FY2025?
78%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.048Mar 17, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Target guide FY2026 adjusted EPS below $8.00 at the March 2026 earnings call?
56%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.314Mar 17, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will Target guide FY2026 CapEx below $4.0B at the March 2026 Financial Community Meeting?
10%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.010Mar 17, 2026
IG: 0.64
Resolution Timeline
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Target report a 5th consecutive negative comparable sales quarter in Q4 FY2025? YESBrier: 0.05
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Target guide FY2026 adjusted EPS below $8.00 at the March 2026 earnings call? NOBrier: 0.31
Mar 31, 2026RESOLVED
Will Target guide FY2026 CapEx below $4.0B at the March 2026 Financial Community Meeting? NOBrier: 0.01
Sep 15, 2026
Will new CEO Fiddelke avoid any discretionary share sales through August 2026?Prediction: 68%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Target exclude transformation-related restructuring charges from adjusted EPS in FY2026?Prediction: 84%