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TLN Forecast Markets

Talen Energy Corporation

7
Active Markets
63%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 19, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will TLN maintain net leverage below 3.5x through Q2 2026?

Active
72%
Likely Yes
82% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will TLN announce a new 500+ MW large-load contract by end of 2026?

Active
35%
Likely No
80% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80

Will TLN close the Cornerstone acquisition by end of Q3 2026?

Active
72%
Likely Yes
85% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will the next PJM Base Residual Auction clear above $300/MW-day?

Active
77%
Likely Yes
86% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.64

Will TLN achieve FY2026 adjusted EBITDA at or above $1.75B (low end of guidance)?

Active
71%
Likely Yes
83% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will AWS draw 960+ MW from TLN's Susquehanna campus before 2029?

Active
43%
Likely No
78% agreement
Mar 31, 2029
IG: 0.48

Will TLN's equivalent forced outage factor remain below 6% in FY2026?

Active
73%
Likely Yes
84% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.36

Resolution Timeline

Oct 15, 2026
Will TLN close the Cornerstone acquisition by end of Q3 2026?
Prediction: 72%
Nov 15, 2026
Will TLN maintain net leverage below 3.5x through Q2 2026?
Prediction: 72%
Jan 31, 2027
Will TLN announce a new 500+ MW large-load contract by end of 2026?
Prediction: 35%
Mar 15, 2027
Will TLN achieve FY2026 adjusted EBITDA at or above $1.75B (low end of guidance)?
Prediction: 71%
Mar 15, 2027
Will TLN's equivalent forced outage factor remain below 6% in FY2026?
Prediction: 73%
Mar 31, 2027
Will the next PJM Base Residual Auction clear above $300/MW-day?
Prediction: 77%
Mar 31, 2029
Will AWS draw 960+ MW from TLN's Susquehanna campus before 2029?
Prediction: 43%