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TWLO Forecast Markets

Twilio Inc.

8
Active Markets
3
Resolved
37%
Avg Probability
Price Below Value
Feb 13, 2026

Our prediction ensemble suggests potential upside from current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

11 markets

Will the Lowery v. OpenAI/Twilio motion to dismiss be denied by September 2026?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
89% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Twilio raise FY2026 organic revenue growth guidance to 10%+ by Q2 2026 earnings?

Active
40%
Likely No
84% agreement
Sep 15, 2026
IG: 0.79

Will the FCC finalize TCPA rulemaking with AI voice platform liability provisions by September 2026?

Active
16%
Likely No
88% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will Twilio report Q1 2026 organic revenue growth below 10% YoY?

Active
35%
Likely No
79% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.63

Will Twilio record a goodwill impairment charge in FY2025 or FY2026?

Active
16%
Likely No
20%16%after Q4 2025 earnings (Feb 12, 2026)
95% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Will Twilio's dollar-based net expansion rate exceed 110% in any quarter by Q2 2026?

Active
30%
Likely No
55%30%after Q4 2025 earnings (Feb 12, 2026)
88% agreement
Aug 15, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Twilio disclose specific AI or Voice AI revenue metrics by Q2 2026 earnings?

Active
18%
Likely No
20%18%after Q4 2025 earnings (Feb 12, 2026)
90% agreement
Aug 31, 2026
IG: 0.48

Will Twilio's Q1 2026 non-GAAP gross margin fall below 49%?

Active
59%
Likely Yes
88% agreement
Jun 15, 2026
IG: 0.36

Will Twilio report Q4 2025 organic revenue growth below 10% YoY?

Resolved
11%
Likely No
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.012
Feb 13, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Twilio guide FY2026 organic revenue growth at 10% or above?

Resolved
68%
Likely Yes
Actual: NO
Brier: 0.462
Feb 13, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will Twilio's Q4 2025 non-GAAP gross margin fall below 50%?

Resolved
66%
Likely Yes
Actual: YES
Brier: 0.116
Feb 13, 2026
IG: 0.64

Resolution Timeline

Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Twilio report Q4 2025 organic revenue growth below 10% YoY?
NOBrier: 0.01
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Twilio guide FY2026 organic revenue growth at 10% or above?
NOBrier: 0.46
Mar 15, 2026RESOLVED
Will Twilio's Q4 2025 non-GAAP gross margin fall below 50%?
YESBrier: 0.12
Jun 15, 2026
Will Twilio report Q1 2026 organic revenue growth below 10% YoY?
Prediction: 35%
Jun 15, 2026
Will Twilio's Q1 2026 non-GAAP gross margin fall below 49%?
Prediction: 59%
Aug 15, 2026
Will Twilio's dollar-based net expansion rate exceed 110% in any quarter by Q2 2026?
Prediction: 30%
Aug 31, 2026
Will Twilio disclose specific AI or Voice AI revenue metrics by Q2 2026 earnings?
Prediction: 18%
Sep 15, 2026
Will Twilio raise FY2026 organic revenue growth guidance to 10%+ by Q2 2026 earnings?
Prediction: 40%
Sep 30, 2026
Will the Lowery v. OpenAI/Twilio motion to dismiss be denied by September 2026?
Prediction: 52%
Sep 30, 2026
Will the FCC finalize TCPA rulemaking with AI voice platform liability provisions by September 2026?
Prediction: 16%
Mar 31, 2027
Will Twilio record a goodwill impairment charge in FY2025 or FY2026?
Prediction: 16%