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USAR Forecast Markets
USA Rare Earth, Inc.
7
Active Markets
56%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will USAR's DOC/CHIPS LOI convert to a binding agreement by September 30, 2026?
72%
Likely Yes
82% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80
Will USAR report any commercial revenue by Q4 2026 (for the quarter ending December 31, 2026)?
55%
Likely Yes
71% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.76
Will USAR's Stillwater Line 1a achieve commissioning (begin producing magnets) by June 30, 2026?
60%
Likely Yes
75% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.72
Will USAR maintain cash and equivalents above $200M through Q3 2026 (without DOC/CHIPS disbursement)?
68%
Likely Yes
80% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.64
Will USAR complete and publish the Round Top Pre-Feasibility Study by December 31, 2026?
58%
Likely Yes
73% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will USAR disclose at least one binding customer purchase order (not MOU) by September 30, 2026?
52%
Likely Yes
68% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.56
Will a US competitor (MP Materials, Lynas USA, or other) begin commercial NdFeB magnet production in the US before USAR by December 31, 2026?
25%
Likely No
85% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Jul 15, 2026
Will USAR's Stillwater Line 1a achieve commissioning (begin producing magnets) by June 30, 2026?Prediction: 60%
Oct 15, 2026
Will USAR's DOC/CHIPS LOI convert to a binding agreement by September 30, 2026?Prediction: 72%
Oct 15, 2026
Will USAR disclose at least one binding customer purchase order (not MOU) by September 30, 2026?Prediction: 52%
Nov 15, 2026
Will USAR maintain cash and equivalents above $200M through Q3 2026 (without DOC/CHIPS disbursement)?Prediction: 68%
Jan 31, 2027
Will USAR complete and publish the Round Top Pre-Feasibility Study by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 58%
Mar 31, 2027
Will USAR report any commercial revenue by Q4 2026 (for the quarter ending December 31, 2026)?Prediction: 55%