RuncheyResearch

Archived research. Equity forecasting is part of the Runchey Research archive (methodology era 1) and is no longer actively updated. Everything remains published at its original URL. Browse the archive

Back to Forecasting

USAR Forecast Markets

USA Rare Earth, Inc.

7
Active Markets
56%
Avg Probability
Price Above Value
Mar 17, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM
Read Full Thesis

All Markets

7 markets

Will USAR's DOC/CHIPS LOI convert to a binding agreement by September 30, 2026?

Active
72%
Likely Yes
82% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.80

Will USAR report any commercial revenue by Q4 2026 (for the quarter ending December 31, 2026)?

Active
55%
Likely Yes
71% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.76

Will USAR's Stillwater Line 1a achieve commissioning (begin producing magnets) by June 30, 2026?

Active
60%
Likely Yes
75% agreement
Jul 15, 2026
IG: 0.72

Will USAR maintain cash and equivalents above $200M through Q3 2026 (without DOC/CHIPS disbursement)?

Active
68%
Likely Yes
80% agreement
Nov 15, 2026
IG: 0.64

Will USAR complete and publish the Round Top Pre-Feasibility Study by December 31, 2026?

Active
58%
Likely Yes
73% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.60

Will USAR disclose at least one binding customer purchase order (not MOU) by September 30, 2026?

Active
52%
Likely Yes
68% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.56

Will a US competitor (MP Materials, Lynas USA, or other) begin commercial NdFeB magnet production in the US before USAR by December 31, 2026?

Active
25%
Likely No
85% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48

Resolution Timeline

Jul 15, 2026
Will USAR's Stillwater Line 1a achieve commissioning (begin producing magnets) by June 30, 2026?
Prediction: 60%
Oct 15, 2026
Will USAR's DOC/CHIPS LOI convert to a binding agreement by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 72%
Oct 15, 2026
Will USAR disclose at least one binding customer purchase order (not MOU) by September 30, 2026?
Prediction: 52%
Nov 15, 2026
Will USAR maintain cash and equivalents above $200M through Q3 2026 (without DOC/CHIPS disbursement)?
Prediction: 68%
Jan 31, 2027
Will USAR complete and publish the Round Top Pre-Feasibility Study by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 58%
Jan 31, 2027
Will a US competitor (MP Materials, Lynas USA, or other) begin commercial NdFeB magnet production in the US before USAR by December 31, 2026?
Prediction: 25%
Mar 31, 2027
Will USAR report any commercial revenue by Q4 2026 (for the quarter ending December 31, 2026)?
Prediction: 55%