USARActive

Will USAR maintain cash above $200M through Q3 2026?

Resolves November 15, 2026(243d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

68%

Likely Yes

Model Agreement80%

Predictions9 runs

Last UpdatedMarch 17, 2026

Why This Question Matters

With accelerating cash burn ($13-15M/quarter OpEx + CapEx) and zero revenue, the Stress Scanner flagged cash position as a critical monitoring trigger. Falling below $200M before revenue would escalate funding fragility and potentially force dilutive financing.

FUNDING_FRAGILITYCAPITAL_DEPLOYMENT

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

opus

sonnet

haiku

Range: 65% – 72%Aggregate: 68%

Individual Predictions(9 runs)

opusRun 1

70%

$400M+ cash minus $15M/quarter OpEx and ~$100M CapEx still leaves well above $200M.

Strong starting positionBurn manageable$200M floor is conservative

opusRun 2

65%

CapEx could accelerate. LCM acquisition cost adds ~$73M. But starting from $400M+ provides substantial buffer.

CapEx acceleration riskLCM costLarge buffer

opusRun 3

68%

Even with aggressive spending, $200M floor through Q3 seems achievable from $400M+ base.

Aggressive spending scenarioAchievable floorStrong base

sonnetRun 1

72%

Math favors yes: $400M minus $45M OpEx (3 quarters) minus $100M CapEx = ~$255M. Comfortable margin.

Simple math favors yesComfortable marginConservative estimate

sonnetRun 2

65%

Unexpected costs could compress but $200M is a low bar from $400M+.

Unexpected cost riskLow barStrong starting point

sonnetRun 3

70%

Likely to stay above $200M through Q3 unless dramatic acceleration in spending.

Likely above thresholdDramatic spend unlikelyModerate confidence

haikuRun 1

72%

Starting from $400M+, spending $150M over 9 months still leaves $250M+.

Strong mathClear marginHigh confidence

haikuRun 2

68%

Should maintain above $200M. Moderate risk of faster-than-expected burn.

Likely aboveModerate burn risk

haikuRun 3

65%

Buffer is sufficient. Lean yes.

Sufficient bufferLean yes

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if cash remains above $200M in all filings through Q3 2026.

Resolution Source

USAR 10-Q filings

Source Trigger

Cash below $200M before revenue

stress-scannerFUNDING_FRAGILITYHIGH

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