VST Forecast Markets

Vistra Corp

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Active Markets

35%

Avg Probability

Price Above Value

Mar 23, 2026

Our prediction ensemble identifies elevated risk at current levels.

7 markets analyzedConfidence: MEDIUM

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All Markets

7 markets

Will Vistra's FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA exceed $5.8B?

Will Amazon or Meta announce a delay or scale-back of Vistra-contracted data center capacity by end of 2026?

Will Vistra announce a new nuclear PPA with a third hyperscaler or major corporate customer by end of 2026?

Will the NRC approve Vistra's 433 MW PJM nuclear uprate application without material conditions by end of 2026?

Will PJM capacity market clearing prices decline more than 20% in the next Base Residual Auction?

Will the Cogentrix acquisition close without material regulatory conditions by Q3 2026?

Will Congress pass legislation materially modifying IRA Section 45U nuclear production tax credits by end of 2026?

Resolution Timeline

Oct 15, 2026

Will the Cogentrix acquisition close without material regulatory conditions by Q3 2026?

Prediction: 68%

Jan 15, 2027

Will Amazon or Meta announce a delay or scale-back of Vistra-contracted data center capacity by end of 2026?

Prediction: 22%

Jan 15, 2027

Will Vistra announce a new nuclear PPA with a third hyperscaler or major corporate customer by end of 2026?

Prediction: 40%

Jan 15, 2027

Will the NRC approve Vistra's 433 MW PJM nuclear uprate application without material conditions by end of 2026?

Prediction: 27%

Jan 15, 2027

Will Congress pass legislation materially modifying IRA Section 45U nuclear production tax credits by end of 2026?

Prediction: 17%

Mar 15, 2027

Will Vistra's FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA exceed $5.8B?

Prediction: 57%

Mar 31, 2027

Will PJM capacity market clearing prices decline more than 20% in the next Base Residual Auction?

Prediction: 15%