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VST Forecast Markets
Vistra Corp
7
Active Markets
35%
Avg Probability
All Markets
7 markets
Will Vistra's FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA exceed $5.8B?
57%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Mar 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Amazon or Meta announce a delay or scale-back of Vistra-contracted data center capacity by end of 2026?
22%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Vistra announce a new nuclear PPA with a third hyperscaler or major corporate customer by end of 2026?
40%
Likely No
93% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will the NRC approve Vistra's 433 MW PJM nuclear uprate application without material conditions by end of 2026?
27%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will PJM capacity market clearing prices decline more than 20% in the next Base Residual Auction?
15%
Likely No
96% agreement
Mar 31, 2027
IG: 0.60
Will the Cogentrix acquisition close without material regulatory conditions by Q3 2026?
68%
Likely Yes
94% agreement
Oct 15, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Congress pass legislation materially modifying IRA Section 45U nuclear production tax credits by end of 2026?
17%
Likely No
94% agreement
Jan 15, 2027
IG: 0.36
Resolution Timeline
Oct 15, 2026
Will the Cogentrix acquisition close without material regulatory conditions by Q3 2026?Prediction: 68%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Amazon or Meta announce a delay or scale-back of Vistra-contracted data center capacity by end of 2026?Prediction: 22%
Jan 15, 2027
Will Vistra announce a new nuclear PPA with a third hyperscaler or major corporate customer by end of 2026?Prediction: 40%
Mar 31, 2027
Will PJM capacity market clearing prices decline more than 20% in the next Base Residual Auction?Prediction: 15%