BKNGActive

Will a preliminary ruling or settlement be reached in the EUR 8B+ European hotel class action against Booking Holdings by December 31, 2026?

Resolves January 31, 2027(339d)

IG: 0.64

Current Prediction

NaN%

Likely No

Model Agreement95%

Predictions1 runs

Last UpdatedFebruary 18, 2026

Prediction History

Initial

20%

Feb 12

-2pp

Current

NaN%

Feb 18

Q4 2025 earnings

Q4 2025 earnings disclosed no material class action updates with the litigation remaining in early procedural stages, and no scheduled hearing dates suggesting a 2026 ruling; European collective litigation timelines remain extended.

Why This Question Matters

The EUR 8B+ class action from 10,000+ hotels is the largest single financial risk event in the analysis. The Regulatory Reader probability-weighted the exposure at EUR 750M-2.4B. A ruling for plaintiffs would create an immediate accrual requirement and embolden regulatory action in other jurisdictions. Equally important, it demonstrates hotel collective action capability that may extend to commission renegotiation. A dismissal would significantly de-escalate REGULATORY_EXPOSURE and validate the Myth Meter's position that 'existential' framing is overstated.

REGULATORY_EXPOSURE

Prediction Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%

sonnet

Range: 18% – 18%Aggregate: NaN%

Individual Predictions(1 runs)

sonnetRun 1

18%

Q4 2025 earnings disclosed no material updates to the EUR 8B+ class action status, and the litigation disclosure language in the 10-K remains in early proceedings with no scheduled hearing dates that would suggest a 2026 ruling. European class action timelines remain extended, slightly reducing the probability of a substantive ruling or settlement this calendar year.

No class action milestones disclosed in Q4 2025 earningsDutch court proceedings remain in early procedural stagesEuropean collective litigation timelines typically extend 3-5+ years

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if any of the following occur before December 31, 2026: (a) a Dutch court issues a preliminary ruling on liability in the class action, (b) Booking Holdings and plaintiffs announce a settlement or settlement framework, or (c) the case is dismissed with prejudice. Resolves NO if the case remains in pre-trial or discovery proceedings with no substantive ruling or settlement announcement.

Resolution Source

Dutch court filings, BKNG SEC filings (10-Q/10-K litigation disclosures), plaintiff counsel press releases

Source Trigger

EU class action preliminary ruling or settlement

regulatory-readerREGULATORY_EXPOSUREHIGH

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