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BKNG Forecast Markets
Booking Holdings Inc.
8
Active Markets
29%
Avg Probability
All Markets
8 markets
Will European hotel direct booking share increase by more than 3 percentage points by December 31, 2026?
12%
Likely No
15%12%after Q4 2025 earnings
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will Google launch a native end-to-end hotel booking product with direct hotel partnerships by December 31, 2026?
10%
Likely No
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.80
Will a preliminary ruling or settlement be reached in the EUR 8B+ European hotel class action against Booking Holdings by December 31, 2026?
18%
Likely No
20%18%after Q4 2025 earnings
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.64
Will Booking Holdings report accommodation take rate compression exceeding 50 basis points YoY in any quarter of H1 2026?
10%
Likely No
12%10%after Q4 2025 earnings
95% agreement
Sep 30, 2026
IG: 0.60
Will the European Commission publish a DMA compliance assessment or open a non-compliance investigation against Booking.com by December 31, 2026?
72%
Likely Yes
70%72%after Q4 2025 earnings
95% agreement
Jan 31, 2027
IG: 0.48
Will Booking Holdings' B2C direct channel mix remain at or above 60% through the first three quarters of 2026?
83%
Likely Yes
79%83%after Q4 2025 earnings
95% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Booking Holdings report Connected Trip penetration exceeding 20% of transactions by Q3 2026?
10%
Likely No
22%10%after Q4 2025 earnings
95% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.48
Will Booking Holdings record additional goodwill or intangible asset impairments exceeding $100M in any quarter through Q3 2026?
15%
Likely No
18%15%after Q4 2025 earnings
95% agreement
Nov 30, 2026
IG: 0.48
Resolution Timeline
Nov 30, 2026
Will Booking Holdings report Connected Trip penetration exceeding 20% of transactions by Q3 2026?Prediction: 10%
Jan 31, 2027
Will European hotel direct booking share increase by more than 3 percentage points by December 31, 2026?Prediction: 12%