Will Booking Holdings' B2C direct channel mix remain at or above 60% through the first three quarters of 2026?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Q4 2025 confirmed mid-60% direct mix with accelerating app download growth and renewed management commitment to direct channel investment, increasing confidence that the 60% threshold holds through 2026.
Why This Question Matters
Direct channel mix is Booking's primary defense against both Google dependency and parity clause damage. At mid-60%, it demonstrates that travelers are choosing Booking.com regardless of whether hotels can offer cheaper direct prices. If direct mix stalls or reverses, it would undermine the 'aggregation wins' thesis and suggest the parity clause impact is materializing through channel shift rather than take rate compression. The Myth Meter classified this as an underweighted positive; a reversal would shift NARRATIVE_REALITY_GAP from DIVERGING toward ALIGNED.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(1 runs)
Q4 2025 earnings confirmed direct mix remains in the mid-60% range with continued app download momentum, increasing confidence that B2C direct mix will stay at or above 60% through 2026. Management reiterated direct channel investment as a strategic priority, further supporting the 'aggregation wins' thesis.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Booking Holdings reports B2C direct channel mix at 60% or above in all three quarters (Q1, Q2, Q3) of 2026 as disclosed in earnings calls or filings. Resolves NO if any quarter shows direct mix falling below 60% or if the company ceases to disclose this metric.
Resolution Source
BKNG quarterly earnings call transcripts and investor presentations (management typically discloses direct mix during prepared remarks)
Source Trigger
B2C direct mix stalls or reverses from mid-60%
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