Will the European Commission publish a DMA compliance assessment or open a non-compliance investigation against Booking.com by December 31, 2026?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Q4 2025 earnings disclosed ongoing regulatory dialogue with the EC, and the accelerating pace of DMA enforcement across all designated gatekeepers increases the probability of a formal compliance assessment or investigation being published in 2026.
Why This Question Matters
The EC DMA compliance assessment fills the most important regulatory data gap. The Regulatory Reader could not assess DMA penalty risk because compliance adequacy is unknown. Non-compliance carries penalties up to 10% of worldwide revenue (~$2.6B per violation). A non-compliance finding would escalate REGULATORY_EXPOSURE and potentially trigger the 'European Squeeze' compound scenario (5-10% probability, MATERIAL-SEVERE). A clean assessment would meaningfully de-escalate regulatory uncertainty for the near term.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(1 runs)
Q4 2025 earnings and post-period regulatory disclosures indicate the EC continues to actively assess DMA gatekeeper compliance; management disclosed ongoing regulatory dialogue with the EC that suggests a formal assessment or investigation is increasingly likely in 2026. The EC's accelerating DMA enforcement pace across gatekeepers reinforces this expectation.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the European Commission (a) publishes a formal compliance assessment of Booking.com's DMA obligations, (b) opens a non-compliance investigation under DMA Article 16, or (c) issues preliminary findings of non-compliance. Resolves NO if no formal DMA compliance action or assessment involving Booking.com is published by the EC before December 31, 2026.
Resolution Source
European Commission DMA enforcement decisions, EC press releases, BKNG SEC filings
Source Trigger
EC DMA compliance assessment published
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