Will Booking Holdings report Connected Trip penetration exceeding 20% of transactions by Q3 2026?
Current Prediction
Prediction History
Q4 2025 earnings indicated Connected Trip remains in low-to-mid teens penetration with no clear catalyst to reach 20% by Q3 2026; the ramp required in the remaining quarters appears unlikely given the current trajectory.
Why This Question Matters
Connected Trip is Booking's most important strategic investment for creating switching costs that competitors cannot replicate. The Moat Mapper classified it as 'too early to credit' at low double-digit penetration. Exceeding 20% would represent a meaningful threshold where bundled trip planning creates genuine friction to switching, potentially justifying a slower moat narrowing trajectory. This is the primary de-escalation trigger for COMPETITIVE_POSITION -- the defensive metric most likely to shift the assessment if it performs.
Prediction Distribution
Individual Predictions(1 runs)
Q4 2025 earnings did not show Connected Trip penetration approaching 20%; management commentary indicated the product remains in low-to-mid teens penetration with no clear catalyst to breach the 20% threshold by Q3 2026. The ramp to 20% within the next three quarters now appears unlikely given the current trajectory.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Booking Holdings reports Connected Trip penetration at 20% or above of total transactions in any quarter through Q3 2026, as disclosed in earnings calls or investor presentations. Resolves NO if penetration remains below 20% through Q3 2026 or if the metric is not disclosed.
Resolution Source
BKNG quarterly earnings call transcripts and investor presentations
Source Trigger
Connected Trip penetration exceeding 20% of transactions
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